642 
FXUS62 KCAE 100617
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge will remain centered offshore the Mid Atlantic 
and SE coast, while a deep upper trough remains over the Western
US. A significant increase in moisture expected tonight and 
Wednesday ahead of Hurricane Michael which will move through 
our region late Wednesday night and Thursday. Fair and cooler 
weather expected behind the departing cyclone for Friday and 
Saturday with the next front expected late this weekend into 
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Strong southeast low level flow through the morning weakening a
bit in the afternoon will result in a deep moisture transport
into the area ahead of Hurricane Michael. Expect precipitable 
water above 2 inches. Warm advection/isentropic lift will result
in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms given moderate 
instability with SBCAPE above 2000 J/kg. Radar at 06z showing 
heavier showers in the coastal plain spreading northwest into 
the Midlands. Categorical pops most areas during the morning 
diminishing in the afternoon as moisture flux shifts to the 
north. Temperatures should be a degree or two cooler than 
yesterday given widespread precipitation although some breaks 
expected in the afternoon especially int he southeast Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will continue to flow into the area off the Atlantic
through the day Wednesday, all ahead of Tropical Cyclone
Michael. Do expect a repeat of previous few days in regards to
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. One change will be the 
potential for more organized thunderstorm activity over the 
southern portions of the cwa ahead of Michael due to increasing 
shear. Highs remain above normal for Wednesday again as 
temperatures climb into the low to middle 80s.

For Wednesday night into Thursday: Although there may be a break
in the rainfall early Wednesday evening, conditions will begin 
to deteriorate late Wednesday night as what remains of Michael 
moves towards the western cwa through the night. Rainfall will 
be on the increase, with heavy rain potential late Wednesday 
night through Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for 
the cwa from Wednesday night through Thursday evening. As 
Michael moves across the cwa on Thursday, there will be a threat
for tropical storm force winds across the eastern portions of 
the forecast area. There will also be the possibility of 
tornadoes, along with the heavy rainfall threat. 

See the NHC official forecasts for additional info on Michael.

Michael should rapidly be moving northeast of the area by 
Thursday night as a deep upper trough picks the system up and 
accelerates it away from the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much change in the longer term at this point. Main front and
upper trough pushes Michael well away from the region Friday,
with fair and cooler weather expected as high pressure builds 
into the eastern seaboard into Saturday. Temperatures become
more seasonal, with lows in the 50s, high in the 70s. A slow 
moving front, with limited moisture may impact the region Sunday
into the early portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ceiling restrictions developing across the area this morning as
moisture continues to spread inland from the coast well in
advance of Hurricane Michael. Radar and model guidance suggest
showers may become more widespread toward daybreak as warm
advection/isentropic lift increases. Ceilings are expected to
rise to VFR by midday as moisture flux shifts to the north of 
the terminals and showers become more scattered. Low clouds
likely to return after 00z. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Impacts expected from Hurricane 
Michael...including very strong and gusty winds along with heavy
rainfall...Wednesday evening through Thursday night.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening 
     for GAZ040-063>065-077.
     Tropical Storm Watch for GAZ065. 
     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ077. 
SC...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening 
     for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
     Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ027>031-037-038. 
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ035-036-041. 
&&

$$