314 
FXUS62 KCAE 092342
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
742 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge will remain centered offshore the Mid Atlantic 
and SE coast, while a deep upper trough remains over the Western
US. A significant increase in moisture expected tonight and 
Wednesday ahead of Hurricane Michael which will move through 
our region late Wednesday night and Thursday. Fair and cooler 
weather expected behind the departing cyclone for Friday and 
Saturday with the next front expected late this weekend into 
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A strong easterly flow will bring increasing tropical moisture 
to the region tonight. PWAT values will increase at or above 2.0
inches. Widespread showers extending from the Low Country into 
east central Georgia will spread northward overnight. Showers
are likely area-wide by daybreak Wednesday. Have increased 
pops across the southern Midlands and CSRA for the evening. 
Extensive cloud cover and east winds overnight will hold low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will continue to flow into the area off the Atlantic
through the day Wednesday, all ahead of Tropical Cyclone
Michael. Do expect a repeat of previous few days in regards to
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. One change will be the 
potential for more organized thunderstorm activity over the 
southern portions of the cwa ahead of Michael due to increasing 
shear. Highs remain above normal for Wednesday again as 
temperatures climb into the low to middle 80s.

For Wednesday night into Thursday: Although there may be a break
in the rainfall early Wednesday evening, conditions will begin 
to deteriorate late Wednesday night as what remains of Michael 
moves towards the western cwa through the night. Rainfall will 
be on the increase, with heavy rain potential late Wednesday 
night through Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for 
the cwa from Wednesday night through Thursday evening. As 
Michael moves across the cwa on Thursday, there will be a threat
for tropical storm force winds across the eastern portions of 
the forecast area. There will also be the possibility of 
tornadoes, along with the heavy rainfall threat. 

See the NHC official forecasts for additional info on Michael.

Michael should rapidly be moving northeast of the area by 
Thursday night as a deep upper trough picks the system up and 
accelerates it away from the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much change in the longer term at this point. Main front and
upper trough pushes Michael well away from the region Friday,
with fair and cooler weather expected as high pressure builds 
into the eastern seaboard into Saturday. Temperatures become
more seasonal, with lows in the 50s, high in the 70s. A slow 
moving front, with limited moisture may impact the region Sunday
into the early portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flight restrictions will develop tonight at all terminals and
persist through Wednesday as abundant moisture spreads over the
region well in advance of Hurricane Michael. 

A band of showers will lift north across the area, affecting 
KAGS/KDNL this evening and overnight, then KCAE/KCUB/KOGB 
overnight into early Wednesday morning. Additional showers are 
then likely through the day on Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall could
result in visibility restrictions at times. 

Expect ceilings to lower to MVFR levels later this evening and 
overnight, then become IFR late tonight into Wednesday morning, 
with gradual improvement back to MVFR by midday Wednesday. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Impacts expected from Hurricane 
Michael...including very strong and gusty winds along with heavy
rainfall...Wednesday evening through Thursday night.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday 
     evening for GAZ040-063>065-077.
     Tropical Storm Watch for GAZ065. 
     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ077. 
SC...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday 
     evening for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
     Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ027>031-037-038. 
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ035-036-041. 
&&

$$