441 FXUS62 KCAE 091836 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 236 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper ridge will remain centered offshore the Mid Atlantic and SE coast, while a deep upper trough remains over the Western US. A significant increase in moisture expected tonight and Wednesday, ahead of Hurricane Michael which will move through our region late Wednesday night and Thursday. Fair and cooler weather expected behind the departing cyclone for Friday and Saturday with the next front expected late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Easterly flow has begun pushing some moisture into the area with WSR-88D and satellite imagery showing showers developing. Additional showers along the coast will also move westward over the next several hours and into the Midlands and CSRA. There is some potential for gusty winds with some of the heavier showers as some dry air remains aloft however the potential for damaging winds gusts is low. Most of the showers will diminish with sunset however with easterly flow increasing overnight expect increasing coverage toward daybreak. With pwat values at or above 2 inches tonight there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. With the extensive cloud cover overnight expect lows in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Moisture will continue to flow into the area off the Atlantic through the day Wednesday, all ahead of Tropical Cyclone Michael. Do expect a repeat of previous few days in regards to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. One chance will be the potential for more organized thunderstorm activity over the southern portions of the cwa ahead of Michael due to increasing shear. Highs remain above normal for Wednesday again as temperatures climb into the low to middle 80s. For Wednesday night into Thursday: Although there may be a break in the rainfall early Wednesday evening, conditions will begin to deteriorate late Wednesday night as what remains of Michael moves towards the western cwa through the night. Rainfall will be on the increase, with heavy rain potential late Wednesday night through Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for the cwa from Wednesday night through Thursday evening. As Michael moves across the cwa on Thursday, there will be a threat for winds approaching tropical storm force across the eastern portions of the forecast area. There will also be the possibility of isolated tornadoes, along with the heavy rainfall threat. See the NHC official forecasts for additional info on Michael. Michael should rapidly be moving northeast of the area by Thursday night as a deep upper trough picks the system up and accelerates it away from the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Not much change in the longer term at this point. Main front and upper trough pushes Michael well away from the region Friday, with fair and cooler weather expected as high pressure builds into the eastern seaboard into Saturday. Temperatures become more seasonal, with lows in the 50s, high in the 70s. A slow moving front, with limited moisture may impact the region Sunday into the early portions of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions yielding to restrictions tonight. Showers have developed across the terminals with additional showers developing along the coast and moving inland. Coverage of showers will remain scattered through this evening then diminish with sunset. MVFR to IFR restrictions expected overnight as low level moisture increases due to strong easterly flow. Expect showers spreading over the terminals during the early morning hours with some locally heavy rain possible. As Hurricane Michael moves into the FL Panhandle Wednesday the pressure gradient will tighten with wind speeds beginning to increase and become gusty near the end of the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Impacts expected from Hurricane Michael...including very strong and gusty winds along with heavy rainfall...Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for GAZ040-063>065-077. Tropical Storm Watch for GAZ077. SC...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ029-031-035>038-041. && $$