882 FXUS65 KBYZ 101518 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 918 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Lowered precipitation chances down to flurries/sprinkles for most lower elevation locations for the rest of the day. Models in good agreement with precipitation trending lower into this afternoon for all but foothills and mountain locations. Even in the foothills and mountains expect only light accumulations for the rest of the day, and road conditions should improve as the morning goes on in locations where light snow accumulations developed overnight. Temperatures will remain in the 30s to low 40s this afternoon with an easterly breeze and cloud cover making it feel even colder. Chambers && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu... Large-scale upper trough is still over interior western North America this morning. Low-level flow is upsloping the terrain over southern MT and northern WY and producing scattered rain and snow showers over the lower elevations and steadier light snow over western foothills. This scattered precipitation should continue this morning and then lessen this afternoon as upsloping weakens. Have kept low chance PoPs in through the day for western and central areas as some weak upsloping should still be around. Tonight into Thursday, an upper shortwave trough will move southeastward over the northern Rockies and bring another round of light snow to the area. This feature does not have as much upsloping flow, so that would help to limit amounts to a small accumulation (a dusting for most places). The trough axis should cross the region from west to east Thursday afternoon into the evening and should bring drier conditions behind it. The drying should lead to a decrease in cloudiness and a modest warmup. Furthermore, low-level winds will turn southwesterly Thursday night, which will help even warmer air move in for Friday. High temperatures today will generally be in the middle to upper 30s under a cloud deck...and then rise a little to the lower to middle 40s on Thursday. RMS .LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue... Friday will be dry and warmer with gusty downslope winds in advance of an approaching Canadian clipper. Gusts to at least 40 mph are a good bet along the western foothills, but it will be breezy across the cwa, with temps climbing into the 60s most places. This should be the warmest day we see over the next week. Cold front will bring much cooler temps and gusty NW winds Friday night and Saturday. Models have trended a bit drier, but we will see some rain/snow showers especially over the west and in NW flow upslope areas as we will have a period of synoptic scale ascent. There is also a chance of some banded snow showers Saturday night with shallow instability extending into the dendritic layer. Overall have lowered pops across our east where the air mass will be drier, and kept highest pops over the mountains and foothills. Shower activity should diminish late Saturday night and Sunday morning. The weekend will see temps well below normal, but western areas should see some modest downslope warming by Sunday. Strong upper ridge axis will remain along the Pacific coast through the middle of next week. This will leave our region prone to impacts from additional clippers in NW flow aloft, a scenario agreed upon by the medium range models. Next shortwave should arrive either Monday or Monday night, with a chance of rain/snow showers extending into Tuesday. Would expect a period of gusty pre-frontal winds Sunday night into Monday, then post-frontal NW winds Monday night and Tuesday. After temps in the mid 30s and 40s this weekend, we should see moderation into the 50s Monday. Tuesday will be colder, then Wednesday warmer again if current model consensus holds. A roller coaster ride in temps indeed through the extended period. JKL && .AVIATION... Most of our region will remain impacted by low clouds and areas of light rain/snow today and tonight. Expect MVFR with areas of IFR, especially along the east slopes of the mountains, with some improvement in flight conditions by late today and tonight. The high terrain will be obscured. East winds will continue to gust to 15 to 25 kts today, with decreasing winds expected tonight. Localized visibility reductions due to fog are also possible. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 039 029/045 030/062 035/041 027/046 034/058 035/053 1/M 33/J 10/N 33/W 21/B 02/W 22/W LVM 036 026/044 028/060 032/038 023/046 033/056 031/052 5/W 43/J 00/N 34/W 20/B 02/W 22/W HDN 041 030/044 029/063 035/043 026/043 029/059 034/052 1/M 33/W 00/B 23/W 21/B 02/W 32/W MLS 040 026/043 028/061 035/040 022/043 027/055 033/049 1/M 12/W 00/B 12/W 11/B 02/W 21/B 4BQ 038 023/042 027/060 036/041 023/040 026/054 032/051 1/M 12/W 10/B 12/W 11/B 02/W 31/B BHK 037 021/041 026/054 034/039 022/038 023/051 030/046 1/M 01/B 10/U 12/J 01/B 03/W 21/B SHR 038 027/042 027/065 033/040 024/041 024/058 030/049 6/W 32/W 10/B 24/W 21/B 02/W 32/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings