070 FXUS61 KBTV 110706 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 306 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region today with widespread showers and periods of rainfall, especially from the Adirondacks eastward. Behind this front much cooler weather arrives for Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 306 AM EDT Thursday...Backdoor front has settled south into the northern St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, while backing west into eastern portions of VT as of 300 am. As expected, temperatures are showing wide variability across this boundary (50s to lower 70s). Increasing coverage of showers and periods of light to moderate rain remain on track for today as deep subtropical moisture rides northeast ahead of a stronger frontal boundary advancing east from southern Ontario and eastern Great Lakes. Good moisture convergence and synoptic forcing aloft argue for maintenance of high PoPs for all but the SLV which will generally lie just west of the deeper moisture plume. As the front clears east later this afternoon a broad decrease in pcpn is expected from west to east. 12-16 hr basin average QPF should average from 0.25 to 0.5 inches across the SLV, 0.5 to 1.0 inches across the Dacks into central/northern VT, and from 1 to 1.5 inches in southern VT in close agreement with most recent NBM output. Given the rainfall will occur over a longer time frame, hydrological concerns remain minimal at this time. High temperatures will be quite tricky once again given placement of the current backdoor boundary and the degree to which it lifts out in advance of the stronger secondary front. Feel eastern VT counties will struggle the most as low static stability holds tough, so only upper 50s to lower 60s expected in these areas. Further west mainly mid 60s to around 70 looks reasonable at this point as southerly flow becomes re- established here. Any lingering showers then clear south and east with the departing frontal zone this evening, though variable clouds will linger. Highest probabilities of partial clearing to occur in the SLV and the northern Champlain Valley as low level flow trends light west to northwesterly. Low temperatures a blend of available guidance, which appears reasonable at this point - mainly mid 40s to lower 50s. By Friday cool high pressure builds east from the central states while a rather large longwave trough slowly edges east from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Some lingering variable cloud cover may still exist in the morning hours, but most spots should trend partly sunny by afternoon. Mean 925 mb temperatures at 18Z range from 4-8C, supporting afternoon maxima from the upper 40s to mid 50s under moderate northwesterly breezes. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 409 PM EDT Wednesday...Fall-like weather returns to the North Country on Friday following the passage of the cold front late Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will be seasonable with high temperatures warming into he mid 40s to mid 50s while lows Friday night fall into the upper 20s to around 40 degrees. A few lingering showers will be possible across higher elevations as moisture will struggle to scour out. There is a small chance that rain showers could potentially mix with or change to rain at higher elevations depending on the degree of cold air advection aloft and how quickly the moisture scours out. Otherwise, skies should generally be clearing with a pretty nice day overall expected across the North Country. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 409 PM EDT Wednesday...A reinforcing shot of cold air will move through the North Country on Saturday as another highly amplified upper level trough moves through the region. Given the antecedent dry conditions following the front Thursday/Friday, showers will struggle to form. However, enough upper level support should be present to help squeak out a few showers. Some of the showers could potentially mix with snow Saturday morning at higher elevations (greater than 2000 ft). This trough will quickly swing through with any chances of showers quickly diminishing heading into the evening hours. Temperatures Saturday night will be the coldest observed across the forecast period with lows dropping into the mid 20 to mid 30s region wide which will likely prompt some frost/freeze products for this weekend. Sunday should continue to be nice, but quite cool with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 40s during the afternoon hours. Another highly amplified mid-latitude trough will set up over the central US on Sunday which will drive yet another cold front through the region on Sunday. There is the potential for some showers with the passage of the trough/front but the antecedent dry conditions will likely limit areal coverage of the shower activity. Fun fact: with the cooler temperatures filtering in aloft, a dusting of snowfall will be possible at higher elevations with some of these showers. The first half of the upcoming work week looks to be seasonably cool with temperatures continuing to reside in the 40s and 50s for highs and the 30s and 40s for lows. Monday through Wednesday should be largely dry. albeit partly to mostly cloudy. Another highly amplified trough sets up west of the region on Monday and push through the region on Tuesday and bring yet another reinforcing shot of cold air. If you've noticed a pattern, you are on the right track. This progressive pattern will likely continue with brief warm ups followed by cold fronts bringing colder air back into the region. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Frontal system crossing the area today will bring periods of light rain and IFR/LIFR cigs at most terminals. Visibilities quite variable, though occnl 2-5sm br appears reasonable from time to time. Wind generally light and less than 10 kts through 12z, though locally north/northeasterly around 10 kts at KMSS. After 12Z winds generally trend south to southwesterly from 5-10 kts in advance of the front. Front then clears east in the 21-02Z time frame with pcpn tapering off and cigs gradually improving to VFR by 03Z. Winds to slowly veer to southwesterly, then west to northwesterly in the 4-8 kt range over time after 00Z. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Chance SHRA. Monday: Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...JMG