964 FXUS61 KBTV 102321 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 721 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm weather will continue this afternoon before a cold front backs south and west into the region this evening. Another, stronger cold front will cross the area on Thursday with a widespread, wetting rainfall expected. Behind this front, much cooler and drier weather are expected by the upcoming weekend as Canadian high pressure settles into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 716 PM EDT Wednesday...Shallow cold front has pushed south of BTV and north/northeast winds in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys are resulting in rapidly falling temperatures. After a high of 82 degrees at BTV around 353PM, temperatures have dropped to 62F at 23Z, with 57F at Highgate and 59F at Massena, NY. May see an isolated shower or two with sloped ascent across the shallow cold front, but coverage should be limited with anticyclonic flow aloft. Otherwise, low stratus clouds follow just north of the front and will see periods of clouds near the intl border overnight. Areas across the Adirondacks, southern SLV and southwestern VT will likely remain south and west of the frontal bndry and most of the low clouds. After midnight tonight the backdoor front also backs into eastern VT while slowly lifting northward from the northern SLV/Champlain Valleys in response to deepening southerly flow ahead of a seasonably deep longwave trough and stronger cold front marching east from the Great Lakes. Temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s across the far northern SLV/Champlain Valleys to slowly moderate over time as the front lifts out. Areas across far southwest VT into the Adirondacks remain mild in the 60s. Meanwhile, as the trough and surface front approach, precipitation chances ramp up sharply from west to east 06-10Z with a steady light rain evolving across western counties toward dawn on Thursday. By Thursday the main frontal boundary swings through the region with a widespread rainfall expected as moisture ahead of the hurricane Michael moves into the region. Temperatures remain seasonably mild as low level flow trends south/southwesterly in all areas. Coolest readings are expected across eastern VT in the slowly eroding maritime airmass (upper 50s/lower 60s) with somewhat milder readings from the Champlain Valley west (mid 60s to around 70). As the front begins to push into far eastern counties later in the day a gradual decrease in precipitation coverage is expected across our far western counties by afternoon. Precipitable water yet again reaches up to around 2 inches so there is a chance of some heavier showers. Some MUCAPE of 200-500 J/kg noted in nrn NY just ahead of the cold front. The GFS on the lower side and NAM higher, but haven't included thunder at this point. Precipitation totals to generally average in the 0.50 to 0.75 north and an inch or so south, highest in the southern VT mountains with a little added orographic lift. Precipitation chances wind down Thursday night with some drier air moving in in the mid levels, but the upper level cloud shield from Michael should still be around otherwise would be thinking about widespread fog, but we'll have to see. Lows generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 409 PM EDT Wednesday...Fall-like weather returns to the North Country on Friday following the passage of the cold front late Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will be seasonable with high temperatures warming into he mid 40s to mid 50s while lows Friday night fall into the upper 20s to around 40 degrees. A few lingering showers will be possible across higher elevations as moisture will struggle to scour out. There is a small chance that rain showers could potentially mix with or change to rain at higher elevations depending on the degree of cold air advection aloft and how quickly the moisture scours out. Otherwise, skies should generally be clearing with a pretty nice day overall expected across the North Country. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 409 PM EDT Wednesday...A reinforcing shot of cold air will move through the North Country on Saturday as another highly amplified upper level trough moves through the region. Given the antecedent dry conditions following the front Thursday/Friday, showers will struggle to form. However, enough upper level support should be present to help squeak out a few showers. Some of the showers could potentially mix with snow Saturday morning at higher elevations (greater than 2000 ft). This trough will quickly swing through with any chances of showers quickly diminishing heading into the evening hours. Temperatures Saturday night will be the coldest observed across the forecast period with lows dropping into the mid 20 to mid 30s region wide which will likely prompt some frost/freeze products for this weekend. Sunday should continue to be nice, but quite cool with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 40s during the afternoon hours. Another highly amplified mid-latitude trough will set up over the central US on Sunday which will drive yet another cold front through the region on Sunday. There is the potential for some showers with the passage of the trough/front but the antecedent dry conditions will likely limit areal coverage of the shower activity. Fun fact: with the cooler temperatures filtering in aloft, a dusting of snowfall will be possible at higher elevations with some of these showers. The first half of the upcoming work week looks to be seasonably cool with temperatures continuing to reside in the 40s and 50s for highs and the 30s and 40s for lows. Monday through Wednesday should be largely dry. albeit partly to mostly cloudy. Another highly amplified trough sets up west of the region on Monday and push through the region on Tuesday and bring yet another reinforcing shot of cold air. If you've noticed a pattern, you are on the right track. This progressive pattern will likely continue with brief warm ups followed by cold fronts bringing colder air back into the region. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...VFR locally MVFR cigs near the mountains expected through 00Z. Thereafter a trend toward MVFR as a shallow backdoor cold front moves down from the north and then the possibility of areas of IFR after 07-10z as showers move into the area as the front moves back as a warm front. The cold front will drop southward into far north terminals this afternoon/evening then stalls. Winds trend light north to northeasterly at KMSS/KPBG/KBTV. A few light showers will be possible in the behind this boundary along with patchy rain drizzle. Further south, winds remain light south/southwesterly at KRUT/KSLK/KMPV. Between 07-10Z widespread light rain and MVFR are expected with areas of IFR associated with this stronger frontal zone push into the area. Winds trend back southerly at many terminals by this time with a few gusts by 18z. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Here are record high temperatures for today, October 10. DateKBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK 10-10 81|1909 80|1949 74|2017 80|1970 81|1955 82|1909 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Banacos/Sisson SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...JMG/Sisson CLIMATE...JMG