194 FXUS61 KBTV 100813 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 413 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm weather will continue today before a cold front backs south and west into the region this evening. Another, stronger cold front will cross the area on Thursday with a widespread, wetting rainfall expected. Behind this front, much cooler and drier weather are expected by the upcoming weekend as Canadian high pressure settles into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 343 AM EDT Wednesday...Changeable weather remains in store for our region over the next 36 hours. As of early morning we remain firmly in an unseasonably warm airmass on the northern periphery of deep subtropical ridging across the eastern third of the nation. Temperatures remain extremely mild by early October standards, running from the mid 60s to lower 70s as of 300 am. The warm front that lifted through the region yesterday morning currently lies across southern ON/QE and eastward into northern Maine. Nearly all guidance continues to show this boundary sagging southward today in response to a passing shortwave trough to our distant north. Using a blend of WRF 4km and NAM 3km output suggests this boundary will push south and west into far northern counties later this afternoon, and into eastern VT this evening/tonight where it will stall. Areas across the Adirondacks, southern SLV and southwestern VT will likely remain to it's south and west. Hourly temperature trends and resultant 12-hr maxima will be tricky, though in general readings should climb to quite warm readings through early to mid afternoon before readings begin to fall sharply across the far north late. A few spots may once again near record territory as values in general top out from 72 to 78 with a few spots nearing the 80F mark in the SLV/Champlain Valleys. Forcing for precipitation in most of the area will remain weak today, especially central/south. The highest threat of any showers and perhaps a widely scattered storm will occur across the far north in proximity to the approaching boundary, though even here only slight chance to chance values will be offered as instability and forcing will be rather limited. By tonight the aforementioned front backs into eastern VT while slowly lifting northward from the northern SLV/Champlain Valleys in response to deepening southerly flow ahead of a seasonably deep longwave trough and stronger cold front marching east from the Great Lakes. Temperatures will once again be quite a challenge given the airmass change across the boundary. Temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s across the far northern SLV/Champlain Valleys to slowly moderate over time as the front lifts out. Meanwhile, readings fall into the 50s with some patchy drizzle possible in eastern VT as the eastern portions of the front backs westward with a maritime-modified airmass. Areas across far southwest VT into the Adirondacks remain mild in the 60s. Meanwhile, as the trough and surface front approach, precipitation chances ramp up sharply from west to east after midnight with a steady light rain evolving across western counties toward dawn on Thursday. As such likely to categorical PoPs will be maintained from east to west after 200 am accordingly. By Thursday the main frontal boundary swings through the region with a widespread and wetting rainfall expected. Temperatures remain seasonably mild as low level flow trends south/southwesterly in all areas. Coolest readings are expected across eastern VT in the slowly eroding maritime airmass (upper 50s/lower 60s) with somewhat milder readings from the Champlain Valley west (mid 60s to around 70). As the front begins to push into far eastern counties later in the day a gradual decrease in precipitation coverage is expected across our far western counties by afternoon. 12-18 hr pcpn totals to generally average in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers associated with a cold front will be exiting the area during the overnight hours Thursday night leading to the start of a cooler weekend. Winds will shift to out of the west ushering in a more normal airmass for this time of year. Clouds will remain mostly cloudy so Friday may be a bit of a dreary day. Weak ridging builds in Friday night into the rest of the weekend as an upper level shortwave may bring some orographic showers through on Saturday. Sub 0C 850mb temps and continued colder air advection mean that some of those showers will be mixed with snow generally above 1500 feet. Temps will be below normal on Saturday with highs only in the 40s. The biggest question for the weekend will be how cold out overnight lows get. MOS is keying on temps generally in the upper 20s in the cold hollows and mid 30s elsewhere. I've trended that direction but with cloud cover we may not radiate all the way out. Saturday night will be the colder of the two nights as we'll be looking at freeze warnings for most of the region. Expect temps to be in the upper 20s to near freezing across most of the North Country. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure starts to break down on Sunday as an upper level through digs through the Great Lakes. This will moderate temps and bring a chance for showers to start the workweek. In the higher terrain it should be cold enough for snow so its possible there could be some accumulating snow but nothing significant. High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday under southerly flow and then another round of showers sweeps through during the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conds expected through 18Z at all terminals. Some patchy, though passing mid level cigs mainly in the 050-100 AGL level expected during this time frame with south to southwesterly flow from 3 to 8 kts expected (locally to 12 kts at KBTV). After 18Z a cold front will drop southward into far northern counties and stall as cigs trend MVFR and winds trend light north to northeasterly at KMSS/KPBG/KBTV. A few light showers will be possible in the vicinity of this boundary. Further south, winds remain light south/southwesterly at KRUT/KSLK/KMPV, though a gradual trend to MVFR cigs by 00Z or shortly thereafter is also expected. Some IFR possible at KMSS. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: NO SIG WX. Sunday: Slight chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Here are record high temperatures for today, October 10. DateKBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK 10-10 81|1909 80|1949 74|2017 80|1970 81|1955 82|1909 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG CLIMATE...JMG