439 FXUS61 KBTV 100542 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 142 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will remain over or just north of the area through Wednesday night with generally mild weather and only a few scattered showers across northern counties. A strong cold front will cross the area on Thursday with a widespread wetting rainfall expected. Behind this front a seasonably cool airmass returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1019 PM EDT Tuesday...Unseasonably warm mid-October night underway with temperature still 74F at BTV at 0215Z, after a tie of the record high of 80F this afternoon. Set a record of 82F at KMSS this afternoon, beating the previous record of 81F set in 1997. South to southwest winds will keep overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70F, generally 20-25deg above the 30-year climate normal. May see a stray shower near the intl border, and some patchy fog across the srn valleys. Otherwise, generally quiet conditions thru the remainder of the overnight hrs. Previous Discussion...Our region will be in the warm sector tonight with warm front finally lifting North of the area. We will be under broad south to southwesterly flow, providing the North Country with another warm mild overnight. Any chances for showers will be along the International border closest to surface boundary which remains to our North. The front will slowly drop southward overnight, and will be situated on our Northern edge by 12z Wednesday. Wednesday will be similar to today with chance for showers in our Northern zones and mild temperatures once again, though probably a couple degrees cooler than Tuesday's highs. As the front drops southward, temperatures will dip behind the front and will also have a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The coolest daytime maximum temperatures will be along the Northern border. Difficult forecast because it really depends on how far south this cold front is able to move. This same front will slowly lift back north on Wednesday night as a warm front, or even remain mainly stationary. Models even indicate the front continues to edge further into our area as a backdoor cold front especially across Eastern Vermont. Either way, showers are expected along this front overnight, with increasing chances for rain headed into Thursday when most of the precipitation will fall. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 319 PM EDT Tuesday...The warmer weather of Wednesday will be an afterthought come Thursday as a cold front and highly amplified mid-latitude trough come sweeping through the region. However, another day of temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees will be expected on Thursday prior to the passage of the cold front with 850 mb temperatures sitting at 13 to 15 degrees Celsius. Rainfall will be pretty showery around sunrise on Thursday with the northern periphery of the upper level ridge barely holding on ahead of the highly amplified trough. With the help of a strong mid-level and upper level jet, the cold front and frontal trough will quickly push into the North Country several hours after sunrise with rainfall quickly overspreading the region. Models continue to be quite optimistic with rainfall, which is entirely plausible given great southwesterly fetch of Gulf Moisture (PWAT values approaching 2 inches). Rainfall amounts will vary between a a half inch across northern New York to around an inch across southern and eastern Vermont. Instability will be rather limited given the timing of the precipitation but with temps and dewpoints in the 60s with temperatures cooling aloft (steepening lapse rates), a rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 319 PM EDT Tuesday...The aforementioned cold front will continue to push across the North Country Thursday heading into Friday morning with below normal temperatures expected in it's wake. The North Country will remain under the influence of the upper level trough which will advect a potent Canadian air mass which will usher in some of the coldest temperatures of the season to date. A reinforcing short of cold air will be seen on Saturday as the axis of the upper level trough pushes through the region. This should help Saturday be quite a bit colder than Friday as 850 mb temperatures drop to 0 to -5 degrees Celsius with the coldest values close to the international border. Friday night and Saturday night will see many locations drop into the 30s with some locations dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The Champlain Valley will once again be on the warm side with temperatures struggling to drop below 38 degrees Saturday night. While under the influence of the upper level trough, a series of shortwaves will track along the longwave pattern which will bring some rain and snow chances to the region. While it is hard to try and pin-point these showers, it won't be until Monday until the first chance for showers would be possible. By this time, temperatures aloft will have already begun to modify under the fall sun. However, it wouldn't be out of the question for parts of the North Country to see some termination dust on the higher peaks of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains with some of these showers. Any snow at higher elevations that does fall will melt given temperatures warmer aloft but another deep trough begins to set up across the central US on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conds expected through 18Z at all terminals. Some patchy, though passing mid level cigs mainly in the 050-100 AGL level expected during this time frame with south to southwesterly flow from 3 to 8 kts expected (locally to 12 kts at KBTV). After 18Z a cold front will drop southward into far northern counties and stall as cigs trend MVFR and winds trend light north to northeasterly at KMSS/KPBG/KBTV. A few light showers will be possible in the vicinity of this boundary. Further south, winds remain light south/southwesterly at KRUT/KSLK/KMPV, though a gradual trend to MVFR cigs by 00Z or shortly thereafter is also expected. Some IFR possible at KMSS. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: NO SIG WX. Sunday: Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos/Neiles SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...JMG