268 FXUS64 KBMX 111135 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 635 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .UPDATE... For 12Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. The outer band of rain from Michael has exited the state this morning. Still a little gusty but winds will calm down fairly soon. The wind advisory expires at 4 am and do not plan on extending it at this time. Meanwhile, the second half of the weather that will impact the region, is the strong cold front that is going to move through this morning. At Midnight the front was right along the Alabama/Mississippi line. Based on radar, the rain was just ahead of the front. With that in mind the front is now right along I-65. There is a wind shift with the light rain, but the drier dewpoints are still in Mississippi, so there is a delay in the front and the drier airmass. By noon the front should be stage right as well. Temperatures will warm up through noon and then will hold steady if not even drop some. Highs will be in the low 70s in the northwest to low 80s in the southeast. Tonight will be downright chilly compared to the extended summer we have had this year. By 10 pm tonight, temperatures will already be below the lows that we have had for the past few weeks. Look for mid 50s in the north to mid 60s in the south. Overnight temperatures will drop into the 40s in the north and low 50s in the south. 16 .LONG TERM... Friday through Thursday. The cold front is well to our south as we begin our Friday. Dry northerly flow will bring in much cooler temperatures across Central AL with highs generally 5 degrees below the normal for this time of year. By Friday evening, and upper level shortwave dips through the midwest and TN River Valley, bringing more overnight cloud cover for our area. This will limit our low temps Saturday morning, keeping them a little higher than what we see tonight. Extra cloud cover is about all we'll see out of that shortwave due to lack of moisture return. A thermal surface high builds eastward through the Ohio River Valley Saturday behind the upper level shortwave. This will act to shift our winds from northerly to more northeasterly, then easterly as we Saturday night/Sunday morning. Early Sunday morning, another shortwave, which is actually the remnant energy from Tropical Storm Sergio in the Eastern North Pacific, lifts northeastward through the Ozarks and into the Ohio River Valley, stretching a cold front through the Western TN and into the MS River Valley. I don't think this front will make it's way into Central AL as high pressure to our southeast keeps it lifted to our north. I have, however, introduced slight chance PoPs along the I-22 corridor in our northwestern counties in case the front does begin to inch into the area. Later Sunday night into Monday, model guidance begins to diverge significantly in the evolution of the upper level pattern. The difference will be whether the upper trough that begins swinging through the Rockies on Sunday develops a cut-off upper level low over the four-corners region or not. If it does not, the trough swings through and brings increased rain chances Monday through Wednesday of next week. I've trended my forecast the opposite direction, which keeps the high pressure system to our south and lifts most of the energy from the trough to our north, leading to relatively lower rain chances through midweek. This is supported by the latest NAEFs runs showing anomalously high mean geopotential heights to our southeast, which edges my confidence closer to the high pressure model solutions. Even with that, I've carried slight chance PoPs through midweek due to the uncertainty. By Thursday, the trough is expected to be east or northeast of our area, leading to a drier trend towards the end of the extended forecast period. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. Low clouds blanketed much of Central Alabama this morning due to wrap-around moisture on the back side of Tropical Cyclone Michael. The rain has pushed east of Alabama so dry conds expected thru the forecast period. Cigs are averaging around 1500 feet agl, and should begin to erode from west to east between 14z and 17z, with only sct clouds by 17z. Northwest winds will prevail thru the period with speeds 10-20 knots. The winds should diminish after 00z, but stay in the 5-8 knot range. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain bands associated with Hurricane Michael will continue to progress eastward through mainly the eastern half of Alabama through tonight. Gusty winds will continue across the southeast counties mainly along and south of Interstate 85, but should taper down overnight. A cold front may bring some rainfall to the western third, but amounts should remain fairly light. Fog should not be an issue with winds high enough to prevent development during the overnight hours. There could be some river fog issues over the weekend. No fire weather concerns are expected. 08 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 74 46 69 51 74 / 20 0 0 0 0 Anniston 74 47 71 51 76 / 20 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 75 48 72 54 76 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 77 49 73 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Calera 76 49 72 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Auburn 78 50 73 54 76 / 10 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 78 51 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 81 51 74 53 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$