790 FXUS64 KBMX 110556 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1256 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .UPDATE... For 06Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Hurricane Michael made landfall just northwest of Mexico City, FL, just after 1230 PM CDT as a strong Category 4 hurricane. The center of Michael is currently located in extreme southwest GA and will continue to track northeastward across GA into tonight. Winds across southeast Central AL have gradually increased, and Troy and Eufaula are reporting NW winds around 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph. There's still a chance that sustained winds could reach into the 25-35 mph range with gusts potentially as high as 50 mph this afternoon and evening as Michael passes just to the southeast. Therefore, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Pike, Bullock, Barbour and Russell Counties. A Flash Flood Watch also remains in effect for the far southeast counties through 06Z tonight. Rainfall totals as of 430 PM are roughly 2-3 inches in the Watch area, with an additional 1-3 inches possible through tonight. Looking back to the west, there's some scattered moderate/heavy showers, and a couple embedded thunderstorms, that have developed along the MS/AL state line in association with a cold front. This activity should gradually diminish this evening as the front slowly pushes eastward across the area behind Michael. 19 .LONG TERM... Thursday through Wednesday. Wrap around clouds and scattered light showers will linger across central Alabama Thursday morning as Tropical Cyclone Michael quickly exits to the east of the area. The rain should be out of east Alabama by 12 noon Thursday and the skies will quickly clear from west to east during the afternoon. Drier low level air will also begin to advect into the area on Thursday as north winds on the back side of Michael pulls a cooler air mass southward. The first taste of Fall weather will occur Friday as an upper trof establishes itself over the eastern United States. The models have trended towards cooler conditions for Friday and Saturday with lows in the 40s and 50s. A gradual warm-up over the weekend as the surface high shifts to the east of Alabama and surface winds become southeast. A fast moving short wave trof will pass to the north of Alabama Monday or Tuesday. The GFS model shows a slightly more amplified trof and brings a band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across central Alabama Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF models shows a weaker trof with the rain dissipating as the system moves through Alabama. Will forecast a chance of rain Sunday and Monday, mainly across the northern counties, with a drying and cooling trend on Tuesday. Models diverge greatly by the middle of next week with the ECMWF model much drier than the GFS, and took a middle ground with low end rain chances. 58/rose && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. The back edge of the rain shield associated with tropical cyclone Michael has moved east of Alabama. A few showers will continue across north Alabama thru 09z, but coverage to sparse for inclusion in TAF forecast. Winds have also diminished across central Alabama, but occasional gusts to 18 knots still possible at KANB and KTOI thru 08z. Winds will increase after 14z as stronger winds aloft mix downward and gusts of 18-20 knots possible at all sites thru 22z. Drier low level air will begin to work into the area from west to east today as Tropical Cyclone Michael moves away from Alabama. Lcl IFR cigs will continue over north Alabama thru 09z, with MVFR cigs prevalent thru 15z. Sct clouds expected across areas west of I-65 by 15z, with sct conds east of I-65 by 18z. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain bands associated with Hurricane Michael will continue to progress eastward through mainly the eastern half of Alabama through tonight. Gusty winds will continue across the southeast counties mainly along and south of Interstate 85, but should taper down overnight. A cold front may bring some rainfall to the western third, but amounts should remain fairly light. Fog should not be an issue with winds high enough to prevent development during the overnight hours. There could be some river fog issues over the weekend. No fire weather concerns are expected. 08 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 75 45 70 48 75 / 20 0 0 0 10 Anniston 77 46 72 49 76 / 20 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 76 48 71 49 76 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 78 48 74 51 78 / 10 0 0 0 10 Calera 77 48 73 51 77 / 10 0 0 0 10 Auburn 79 51 74 53 76 / 20 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 81 51 77 53 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 Troy 81 51 75 52 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT early this morning for the following counties: Barbour...Bullock...Pike...Russell. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for the following counties: Barbour...Bullock...Lee...Macon...Pike... Russell. && $$