861 FXUS64 KBMX 102151 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 451 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM... Hurricane Michael made landfall just northwest of Mexico City, FL, just after 1230 PM CDT as a strong Category 4 hurricane. The center of Michael is currently located in extreme southwest GA and will continue to track northeastward across GA into tonight. Winds across southeast Central AL have gradually increased, and Troy and Eufaula are reporting NW winds around 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph. There's still a chance that sustained winds could reach into the 25-35 mph range with gusts potentially as high as 50 mph this afternoon and evening as Michael passes just to the southeast. Therefore, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Pike, Bullock, Barbour and Russell Counties. A Flash Flood Watch also remains in effect for the far southeast counties through 06Z tonight. Rainfall totals as of 430 PM are roughly 2-3 inches in the Watch area, with an additional 1-3 inches possible through tonight. Looking back to the west, there's some scattered moderate/heavy showers, and a couple embedded thunderstorms, that have developed along the MS/AL state line in association with a cold front. This activity should gradually diminish this evening as the front slowly pushes eastward across the area behind Michael. 19 .LONG TERM... Thursday through Wednesday. Wrap around clouds and scattered light showers will linger across central Alabama Thursday morning as Tropical Cyclone Michael quickly exits to the east of the area. The rain should be out of east Alabama by 12 noon Thursday and the skies will quickly clear from west to east during the afternoon. Drier low level air will also begin to advect into the area on Thursday as north winds on the back side of Michael pulls a cooler air mass southward. The first taste of Fall weather will occur Friday as an upper trof establishes itself over the eastern United States. The models have trended towards cooler conditions for Friday and Saturday with lows in the 40s and 50s. A gradual warm-up over the weekend as the surface high shifts to the east of Alabama and surface winds become southeast. A fast moving short wave trof will pass to the north of Alabama Monday or Tuesday. The GFS model shows a slightly more amplified trof and brings a band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across central Alabama Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF models shows a weaker trof with the rain dissipating as the system moves through Alabama. Will forecast a chance of rain Sunday and Monday, mainly across the northern counties, with a drying and cooling trend on Tuesday. Models diverge greatly by the middle of next week with the ECMWF model much drier than the GFS, and took a middle ground with low end rain chances. 58/rose && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Hurricane Michael will continue to move N NE...with a widespread area of rain moving across central AL. Rain is expected through the rest of day...with generally MVFR conditions prevailing at all TAF sites. Heavy showers can cause IFR ceilings and visibilities...though expect these to be intermittent. Winds around Hurricane Michael will gust...with the strongest gusts closer to the center of the storm. KTOI and KMGM could see gusts up to and over 40 kts at times. Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the afternoon and evening...though with uncertainty in coverage...have left mention of thunder out of each TAF for now. Thursday morning...Hurricane Michael will move NE...with rain showers decreasing by late morning. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain bands associated with Hurricane Michael will continue to progress eastward through mainly the eastern half of Alabama through tonight. Gusty winds will continue across the southeast counties mainly along and south of Interstate 85, but should taper down overnight. A cold front may bring some rainfall to the western third, but amounts should remain fairly light. Fog should not be an issue with winds high enough to prevent development during the overnight hours. There could be some river fog issues over the weekend. No fire weather concerns are expected. 08 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 75 45 70 48 / 70 20 0 0 0 Anniston 70 77 46 72 49 / 90 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 68 76 48 71 49 / 50 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 68 78 48 74 51 / 40 10 0 0 0 Calera 68 77 48 73 51 / 50 10 0 0 0 Auburn 71 79 51 74 53 / 100 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 73 81 51 77 53 / 70 10 0 0 0 Troy 72 81 51 75 52 / 80 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Barbour...Bullock...Pike...Russell. Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Barbour... Bullock...Pike...Russell. && $$