609 FXUS64 KBMX 101754 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1254 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... For 18Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. All eyes are focused to our south as Hurricane Michael continues to churn the waters of the northern Gulf. Hurricane Michael has become a category 4 hurricane overnight and will begin to turn to the northeast this morning. The storm will be at least a category 3 hurricane at the time of landfall, and possibly a category 4, but will rapidly weaken as it moves inland. There is a chance that our southeastern most counties could see a brief window of stronger winds on the northwest side of Michael. Heavy rains will also be a threat across the far southeast as the storm moves inland. Look for widespread rain and occasional thunderstorm to work into the region by 9 am and then slide/spread north and east. Continued the flash flood watch in the southeast, and will be upgrading the tropical storm warning to now include Bullock and Russell counties. Still not that confident that winds will be high enough for a tropical storm warning but the chances are there especially with Michael so strong at the onset of this forecast. As Michael is exiting the southeast, a cold front will be entering the west. Rainfall is expected to be along the front, but will be encountering some drier air and subsidence on the western side of Michael. Will still go likely rain chances with the front but activity will be scattered. 16 .LONG TERM... Thursday through Wednesday. Wrap around clouds and scattered light showers will linger across central Alabama Thursday morning as Tropical Cyclone Michael quickly exits to the east of the area. The rain should be out of east Alabama by 12 noon Thursday and the skies will quickly clear from west to east during the afternoon. Drier low level air will also begin to advect into the area on Thursday as north winds on the back side of Michael pulls a cooler air mass southward. The first taste of Fall weather will occur Friday as an upper trof establishes itself over the eastern United States. The models have trended towards cooler conditions for Friday and Saturday with lows in the 40s and 50s. A gradual warm-up over the weekend as the surface high shifts to the east of Alabama and surface winds become southeast. A fast moving short wave trof will pass to the north of Alabama Monday or Tuesday. The GFS model shows a slightly more amplified trof and brings a band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across central Alabama Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF models shows a weaker trof with the rain dissipating as the system moves through Alabama. Will forecast a chance of rain Sunday and Monday, mainly across the northern counties, with a drying and cooling trend on Tuesday. Models diverge greatly by the middle of next week with the ECMWF model much drier than the GFS, and took a middle ground with low end rain chances. 58/rose && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Hurricane Michael will continue to move N NE...with a widespread area of rain moving across central AL. Rain is expected through the rest of day...with generally MVFR conditions prevailing at all TAF sites. Heavy showers can cause IFR ceilings and visibilities...though expect these to be intermittent. Winds around Hurricane Michael will gust...with the strongest gusts closer to the center of the storm. KTOI and KMGM could see gusts up to and over 40 kts at times. Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the afternoon and evening...though with uncertainty in coverage...have left mention of thunder out of each TAF for now. Thursday morning...Hurricane Michael will move NE...with rain showers decreasing by late morning. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... An increase in moisture and rain chances is expected through Thursday as we monitor Hurricane Michael that will impact the eastern two thirds of the state. A cold front may bring some rainfall to the western third, but amounts should remain fairly light. The best rain chances will be this afternoon through Thursday morning. Fog should not be an issue with winds high enough to prevent development during the overnight hours. There could be some river fog issues over the weekend, so be mindful of that. No fire weather concerns are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 75 45 70 48 / 60 30 0 0 0 Anniston 69 77 46 72 49 / 70 40 0 0 0 Birmingham 70 76 48 71 49 / 50 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 70 78 48 74 51 / 30 10 0 0 0 Calera 69 77 48 73 51 / 50 20 0 0 0 Auburn 71 80 51 74 53 / 90 40 0 0 0 Montgomery 73 81 51 77 53 / 60 20 0 0 0 Troy 72 82 51 75 52 / 80 20 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following counties: Barbour...Bullock...Pike...Russell. Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Barbour... Bullock...Pike...Russell. && $$