338 FXUS64 KBMX 100009 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 709 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Fairly quiet across the area today except for some spotty light showers. As moisture continues to increase ahead of Hurricane Michael, we can expect overcast skies tonight as a stratus deck moves into the area, but only isolated showers are expected. With the increase in cloud cover and moisture, lows will be in the low/mid 70s. The outer bands from Michael will begin to move up from the south Wednesday morning. Numerous to widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will gradually spread northward across Central AL through the day. Most of the forecast area will receive less than 1 inch of total rainfall from the tropical system. However, the far southeastern counties could see 3-5 inches total rainfall through Thursday morning. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Pike, Russell, Barbour and Bullock Counties. Michael will weaken fairly quickly as it moves inland. Even so, Pike and Barbour Counties still have a chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds at some point Wednesday afternoon/evening. Have upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for these 2 counties. Expect sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in this area closer to the circulation center. As Michael exits to the east Wednesday night, a cold front will move in from the west. We're currently not expecting any heavy rainfall with the front as it will encounter some dry air and subsidence on the west side of Michael. 19 .LONG TERM... Thursday through Tuesday. By early Thursday morning, Michael is expected to be pushing through Central and Southern Georgia, weakening as it moves further inland. There should be a fairly tight precipitation gradient from west to east right along the Georgia/Alabama state line Thursday morning, so I've kept mention for a chance of rain showers generally east of I- 65, though this should quickly diminish as we get closer to the afternoon as Michael continues to push eastward away from Central AL. The cold front that swings through the region and pushes Michael eastward will slide through through Central AL through the day Thursday. This will lead to drier, northerly flow for Friday and Saturday, along with much cooler temperatures as we head into the weekend. Another cold front will push through the MS River Valley Sunday night through Monday as a trough digs into the Central Plains. The associated surface low is well north of the area (in the Great Lakes region), but enough convergence is present to support shower development along the front. Confidence in the trough evolution and timing is low at this time, so have gone with chance PoPs Monday into Tuesday due to the uncertainties. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. As Hurricane Michael nears the Gulf Coast, moisture will continue to increase with MVFR cigs developing/spreading as the evening progresses, between 2-6z from south to north. The exception would be TOI, as it will be closer to Michael, we could see some IFR cigs during the morning. Rain bands from Michael should spread from the south starting around 10z south to around 18z north. The strongest winds will be at MGM/TOI closer to the center of Michael. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... An increase in moisture and rain chances is expected through Thursday as we monitor a tropical system that will impact the eastern two thirds of the state. A cold front may bring some heavier rain to the western third. The best rain chances will be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Fog should not be an issue as we are too windy for the fog development through Thursday. There could be some river fog issues over the weekend, so be mindful of that. No fire weather concerns are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 81 69 77 50 / 30 60 70 40 10 Anniston 72 81 69 80 51 / 30 70 70 40 10 Birmingham 74 83 70 77 52 / 20 60 70 30 10 Tuscaloosa 75 85 70 80 52 / 20 60 60 10 10 Calera 72 83 69 78 51 / 20 60 60 20 10 Auburn 73 77 71 81 55 / 30 90 90 50 10 Montgomery 74 82 73 83 55 / 20 80 70 30 10 Troy 74 78 72 83 55 / 30 90 80 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Barbour... Pike. Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for the following counties: Barbour...Bullock...Pike... Russell. && $$