847 
FXUS63 KBIS 111350
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
850 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

No change for the remainder of the day outside of observed trends
through 13 UTC with surface high pressure. 

UPDATE Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Satellite loops show the stratus deck is eroding east at 10 mph,
currently on a Glen Ullin to Kenmare line. Expect this erosion to
pick up speed after sunrise as the heating increases mixing. For 
now will maintain gradual clearing in the forecast, which should 
reach the James River Valley around 2 PM in the afternoon. Current
forecast looks ok. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

With the Winter Storm exiting the region a region of higher
pressure will move over teh region today and tonight. This will
result in gradual clearing today and mostly clear skies tonight.
The snow covered areas across the James River Valley will impact
temperatures, both highs and lows for the next few days. Lowered
Highs today a few degrees over the Superblend Guidance and lowered
lows tonight as well.  

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Friday may be the warmest day of the forecast period, especially 
west. The region will be in between the departing upper trough to
the east and an incoming clipper system expected to arrive
Saturday, resulting a temporary warmup for the region. Highs will
range from around 40 east to teh mid 50s southwest. 

Saturday will see the arrival of a clipper system, bringing cooler 
air and gusty winds. The NAM/GFS both bring strong low level winds
between 45 and 50 Kt at the h850 level, with low level adiabatic 
lapse rates that favor transfer of momentum, So used teh CONSMOS 
guidance for winds this period which raised teh winds speeds 5 to 
10 mph over teh Superblend guidance, This may result in wind 
advisory criteria being met over much of west and central North
Dakota. 

The remainder of the extended will see gradual rising heights 
across the northern plains, with the center of the building ridge
over the western US. This may signal a return to at least near 
normal temperatures by mid week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 844 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

MVFR stratus across central North Dakota this morning will
decrease from west to east late this morning into the afternoon. 
There is a chance of light rain and snow far southwest late this 
afternoon and into the early evening, with a brief period of MVFR 
ceilings and visibility possible. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...PA