534 
FXUS63 KBIS 110934
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
434 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

With the Winter Storm exiting the region a region of higher
pressure will move over teh region today and tonight. This will
result in gradual clearing today and mostly clear skies tonight.
The snow covered areas across the James River Valley will impact
temperatures, both highs and lows for the next few days. Lowered
Highs today a few degrees over the Superblend Guidance and lowered
lows tonight as well.  

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Friday may be the warmest day of the forecast period, especially 
west. The region will be in between the departing upper trough to
the east and an incoming clipper system expected to arrive
Saturday, resulting a temporary warmup for the region. Highs will
range from around 40 east to teh mid 50s southwest. 

Saturday will see the arrival of a clipper system, bringing cooler 
air and gusty winds. The NAM/GFS both bring strong low level winds
between 45 and 50 Kt at the h850 level, with low level adiabatic 
lapse rates that favor transfer of momentum, So used teh CONSMOS 
guidance for winds this period which raised teh winds speeds 5 to 
10 mph over teh Superblend guidance, This may result in wind 
advisory criteria being met over much of west and central North
Dakota. 

The remainder of the extended will see gradual rising heights 
across the northern plains, with the center of the building ridge
over the western US. This may signal a return to at least near 
normal temperatures by mid week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Deep low pressure across Minnesota will move east allowing gradual
clearing across western and central sections of the state by 12Z.
MVFR conditions will gradually improve to VFR from west to east. 


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA