837 
FXUS63 KBIS 102004
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
304 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Diminishing snowfall through the evening far south central and 
across the James River Valley highlights the short term forecast.

No change to the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm
Warning at this time. Reports indicate 7 to as much as 11 inches 
of snow across LaMoure and Dickey counties as of 300 pm CDT. 
Snowfall intensity will continue to diminish through the afternoon
and evening as the 700 mb low continues to slowly propagate east.
Generally around an inch of new snow is expected across the James
River Valley, with a few locations across far eastern LaMoure and
Dickey counties perhaps receiving 2 more inches of snow. 
Northerly wind gusts around 30 kts will continue into the early 
evening across the James River Valley. This has been causing near 
white out conditions, especially in open country. The strong 
winds, and wet heavy snow are also causing tree branches to fall, 
and some power outages. 

The 12 UTC global suite favors cool surface high pressure to 
build across western and central North Dakota tonight into 
Thursday. Thus, a return of sunshine is expected on Thursday, with
highs ranging from the 30s across the snow covered James River
Valley, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

A relatively mild Friday, followed by a windy Saturday in the 
wake of a clipper system, with another clipper for Monday 
highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite depicts a warm front propagating across
most of western and central North Dakota Friday ahead of a clipper
system. While still below normal, widespread highs in the 50s are
possible across most of the area, with 40s across the snowpack of
the James River Valley ahead of the warm front. Saturday looks to
be windy with strong cold air advection and pressure rises in the
wake of the clipper, with 40-45kts to mix. A Wind Advisory may be
needed for Saturday. Another clipper may impact the region Monday
into Tuesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

IFR/LIFR conditions in snow and strong wind gusts to 35 kts will 
continue across far south central North Dakota and the James River
Valley through this afternoon, including KJMS. Snow and winds 
will diminish this evening. Little to no snowfall is expected to 
impact KBIS today. MVFR stratus west and central this afternoon
will continue central into tonight. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ048-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ025-037-
047-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...PA