594 FXUS63 KBIS 101820 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 120 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Based on snowfall and impact reports from emergency management in LaMoure and Dickey counties, decided to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for these counties. Around 6 inches of snow, with isolated amounts near 8 inches, is already on the ground. An additional 1 to 3 inches is forecast. Strong northerly wind gusts around 35 mph will create white out conditions in open country. The strong winds and heavy snow is also leading to many tree branches falling, and some power outages. UPDATE Issued at 959 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 No change to the Winter Weather Advisory at this time. Reports indicate 2 to 4 inches of wet snow has accumulated across most of the advisory area. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected for most locations, as snow ratios will continue to be small given near freezing temperatures, and compaction from insolation and strong northerly winds. While a few locations could receive 6 to 7 inches of storm total snow, the prolonged nature of the snow supports not upgrading to a Winter Storm Warning at this time. A few power outages are possible from the combination of wet, heavy snow and strong winds. For Bismarck and Mandan, dry air with surface dewpoints in the mid 20s supports very little to no snow falling across the metro area. UPDATE Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The main concern remains snow amounts today. The 06Z iterations of the NAM and GFS show the current forecast remains on track. They continue to show a general 3 to 6 inches of snow in the Winter Weather Advisory area with perhaps a few isolated higher amounts. Another challenge is there will be a sharp cut-off between which areas do and don't receive snow. Bismarck appears to be right on that line. For now, did not shave off the western edge of the snow chances, but could see the main area of snow remaining just a bit east of the current forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Main concern in the short term period remains snow and associated winter weather headlines. Regional radar this morning shows rain and snow in South Dakota moving north into southeast North Dakota and towards the James River Valley. Models continue to suggest a rather sharp cutoff to the higher precipitation amounts with the greatest qpf amounts from around Jamestown, into eastern North Dakota. One noticeable trend so far has been that reported precipitation amounts have been less than what some of the models initially suggested. SREF and GEFS plumes, along with short term model blends still suggest the combination of QPF amounts and gradually increasing snow ratios would support a general 3 to 6 inches of snow in the Winter Weather Advisory area, with the highest amounts generally from Jamestown into the southern part of the James River Valley (in ND). Could see some potential for a few higher snow totals if the higher qpf models solutions verify, but confidence in reaching snow amounts that meet warning criteria is not high enough to upgrade any areas of the advisory at this point. Will have to keep an eye on things, and once we start to receive reports later this morning, that should be a good indication if headline adjustments are needed. In regards to headline timing, will keep the current expiration time in place. Snow should gradually begin to decrease this afternoon, with it ending tonight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The long term period will begin with a brief warming trend Thursday into Friday. We could see highs approach 50 degrees on Friday in western parts of the state, but the warmer temperatures do not last long with another cold front crossing the state Friday night into Saturday. The front will bring colder temperatures for the weekend with chances of rain/snow Friday night and Saturday. Another wave and cold front move across early next week, but once that passes, there continues to be indications temperatures will try to become closer to normal by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 IFR/LIFR conditions in snow and strong wind gusts to 35 kts will continue across far south central North Dakota and the James River Valley through this afternoon, including KJMS. Snow and winds will diminish this evening. Little to no snowfall is expected to impact KBIS today. MVFR stratus will become more widespread across much of northwestern and central North Dakota late this morning and into the afternoon. Stratus will continue central into tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ048-051. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ025-037- 047-050. && $$ UPDATE...PA SHORT TERM...CK LONG TERM...CK AVIATION...PA