138 
FXUS63 KBIS 101144
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
644 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The main concern remains snow amounts today. The 06Z iterations of
the NAM and GFS show the current forecast remains on track. They
continue to show a general 3 to 6 inches of snow in the Winter
Weather Advisory area with perhaps a few isolated higher amounts. 

Another challenge is there will be a sharp cut-off between which
areas do and don't receive snow. Bismarck appears to be right on
that line. For now, did not shave off the western edge of the snow
chances, but could see the main area of snow remaining just a bit
east of the current forecast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Main concern in the short term period remains snow and associated
winter weather headlines. Regional radar this morning shows rain
and snow in South Dakota moving north into southeast North Dakota
and towards the James River Valley. Models continue to suggest a
rather sharp cutoff to the higher precipitation amounts with the
greatest qpf amounts from around Jamestown, into eastern North
Dakota. One noticeable trend so far has been that reported
precipitation amounts have been less than what some of the models
initially suggested. SREF and GEFS plumes, along with short term
model blends still suggest the combination of QPF amounts and
gradually increasing snow ratios would support a general 3 to 6
inches of snow in the Winter Weather Advisory area, with the
highest amounts generally from Jamestown into the southern part of
the James River Valley (in ND). 

Could see some potential for a few higher snow totals if the 
higher qpf models solutions verify, but confidence in reaching 
snow amounts that meet warning criteria is not high enough to 
upgrade any areas of the advisory at this point. Will have to keep
an eye on things, and once we start to receive reports later this
morning, that should be a good indication if headline adjustments
are needed. 

In regards to headline timing, will keep the current expiration
time in place. Snow should gradually begin to decrease this
afternoon, with it ending tonight. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The long term period will begin with a brief warming trend 
Thursday into Friday. We could see highs approach 50 degrees on 
Friday in western parts of the state, but the warmer temperatures 
do not last long with another cold front crossing the state Friday
night into Saturday. The front will bring colder temperatures for
the weekend with chances of rain/snow Friday night and Saturday. 
Another wave and cold front move across early next week, but once 
that passes, there continues to be indications temperatures will 
try to become closer to normal by the middle of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

An early winter storm will impact the northern plains today
through this evening. The main impacts in North Dakota will be to
KJMS where very low IFR conditions are expected in snow and low
clouds. Conditions will improve to MVFR after 04Z. 

Otherwise MVFR conditions expected to prevail across west and
central North Dakota, generally improving to VFR after 06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday 
for NDZ023-025-036-037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...WAA