779 
FXUS63 KBIS 100818 CCA
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
318 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Main concern in the short term period remains snow and associated
winter weather headlines. Regional radar this morning shows rain
and snow in South Dakota moving north into southeast North Dakota
and towards the James River Valley. Models continue to suggest a
rather sharp cutoff to the higher precipitation amounts with the
greatest qpf amounts from around Jamestown, into eastern North
Dakota. One noticeable trend so far has been that reported
precipitation amounts have been less than what some of the models
initially suggested. SREF and GEFS plumes, along with short term
model blends still suggest the combination of QPF amounts and
gradually increasing snow ratios would support a general 3 to 6
inches of snow in the Winter Weather Advisory area, with the
highest amounts generally from Jamestown into the southern part of
the James River Valley (in ND). 

Could see some potential for a few higher snow totals if the 
higher qpf models solutions verify, but confidence in reaching 
snow amounts that meet warning criteria is not high enough to 
upgrade any areas of the advisory at this point. Will have to keep
an eye on things, and once we start to receive reports later this
morning, that should be a good indication if headline adjustments
are needed. 

In regards to headline timing, will keep the current expiration
time in place. Snow should gradually begin to decrease this
afternoon, with it ending tonight. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The long term period will begin with a brief warming trend 
Thursday into Friday. We could see highs approach 50 degrees on 
Friday in western parts of the state, but the warmer temperatures 
do not last long with another cold front crossing the state Friday
night into Saturday. The front will bring colder temperatures for
the weekend with chances of rain/snow Friday night and Saturday. 
Another wave and cold front move across early next week, but once 
that passes, there continues to be indications temperatures will 
try to become closer to normal by the middle of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

An early winter storm will impact the upper midwest with a variety 
of aviation hazards, including IFR to Low IFR conditions due to 
clouds, snow and fog. The precipitation will fall primarily KBIS to 
KJMS and will start as a rain and snow mix before turning over to 
all snow. 

Expect deteriorating conditions KBIS-KJMS after 08-10Z, especially 
KJMS where LOW IFR conditions are forecast after 10z in snow and 
fog. 

Otherwise, expect a period of MVFR conditions KISN-KMOT due to 
clouds, with a period of IFR ceilings at KDIK 06-15z, improving to 
MVFR after 15Z. 


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday 
for NDZ023-025-036-037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...WAA