690 FXUS61 KBGM 111501 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1101 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A moist system moving across the region will cause occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be possible, especially towards the Poconos to Catskills, before a cold front sweeps northwest to southeast mid afternoon through early evening. Much cooler weather will follow for Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM update... Late morning surface analysis shows Tropical Storm Michael located in north-central SC. Another area of low pressure was positioned over eastern Ontario with this system's cold front extending southward through the Great Lakes region and along the Appalachian spine. Deep south-southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front and mid-latitude trough has advected tropical moisture up the entire eastern seaboard. Satellite and RAOB observed PWATs were in the 1.75-2.00" range over PA and NY, which are near records values for October. Strong diabatic heating associated with Michael has contributed to amplification of the downstream ridge/upstream trough pattern and resultant upper-level jet streak that was positioned over the Great Lakes/ eastern Canada. The second round of moderate to heavy rain (the first round occurred overnight) continues to impact the area this morning. Rainfall so far today (as of 1030 AM) have averaged between one- third and three-quarters inch. However, heavier amounts exceeding an inch have been reported in the Twin Tiers region with totals quickly approaching two inches (with rates exceeding 1" per hour) in the Scranton- Wilkes Barre area. The potential for minor/poor drainage flooding is high in these areas (mainly from Binghamton, south and east) but there is also a risk for isolated small stream/flash flooding in these locations given the already saturated soils and potential for localized rainfall amounts over two inches. A short-fused Flash Flood Watch was considered but the rain appears to be progressive enough (exiting our eastern zones before 3 PM) and to cause more widespread flash flooding. The most recent forecast update from this morning focused on hourly PoPs, weather, and QPF with the rest of the forecast in excellent shape. 7 AM update... After a small break in the wake of the second batch, the cold front itself will probably have a narrow line of showers/thunder as it presses through about 2PM northwest to 8PM southeast. Potential for localized flooding does not look as much as with the wave earlier, because of progressive nature of front, the narrowness of the line, and its slight detachment from the deeper moisture advecting further east. However, ponding of water on roads etc. could easily occur from the quick downpour. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will move in quickly tonight. Even with the drier air mass, the cooler air will flow across a very warm Lake Ontario and trigger lake effect rain showers across the northern Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley towards dawn. Any rain will be light, but much cooler temperatures in the mid 40s-lower 50s and an increasing northwest wind will make it feel much more like Fall. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Friday: The cold front which pushes through the region today will continue moving offshore. This will allow for a temporary clearing window ahead of the next trough of low pressure approaching the region from the Great Lakes. Northwest winds will be coming off the Great lakes and with a temperature differentials starting to increase the generation of some lake effect showers i possible across northern portions of the area. Highs will likely sneak into the 50's. However northwest winds around 10 mph with bufkit data showing the potential for gusts to 20 mph will make it feel even cooler. Friday night and Saturday: A trough of low pressure will be the culprit for our next round of showers. Moisture looks considerably more limited than with recent events keeping the rain a lighter variety. Temperatures will fall to around 40 by Saturday morning and struggle to rise much during the day. Rainfall will be under a quarter of an inch from this feature. Westerly winds will continue with a few afternoon gusts Saturday afternoon around 15 mph. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday night through Sunday: High pressure will build into the region Saturday night before departing to our east on Sunday. This will give us another short window of clearing. With some clearing Saturday night, decreasing winds in the evening and 850 mb just falling a bit below 0C. All of these factors lead to the potential frost formation early Sunday morning with lows in the mid 30's for many spots. With more in the way of sunshine, high temperatures should warm into the 50's. Sunday night through Wednesday: Another cold front will move through the region on Monday with enough lift along the front to generate another round of scattered showers. Models are trending toward a stronger anafrontal wave forming along the front for Monday night and Tuesday which would result in another chance for a more stratiform rain. Timing on the various operational runs and ensembles still differs some at this point with some members also keeping the low south of our region. Model guidance looks a touch too warm for anything besides rain as well. Lake effect rain showers are then possible with the next trough of low pressure on Wednesday that moves through. Clouds and rain will likely keep temperatures down a bit for daytime highs in the upper 40's to mid 50's and lows in the upper 30's to low 40's. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z Update... Moist conditions with frontal system and resulting showers has caused deteriorating conditions. Fuel alternate ceilings have been or soon will be realized for all terminals, with some IFR as well for higher elevation terminals and within heavier showers. There is at least a chance of thunder during the daytime as well, though probability is too low to include in TAFs. A cold frontal passage this afternoon-early evening will bring a veering wind shift to WNW, along with eventual improvement to VFR, though an MVFR deck will return to several terminals late tonight. Until then, southerly winds of 5-10 knots will continue. Outlook... Friday...VFR, except MVFR in lake effect -SHRA possible KSYR- KRME; perhaps brief MVFR ceiling KBGM-KITH. Friday night through Saturday...Restrictions possible in showers as an upper wave passes. Saturday night through Sunday evening...VFR. Monday...Additional restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...JRK/MDP SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...JRK/MDP