501 FXUS61 KBGM 111110 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 710 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A moist system moving across the region will cause occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be possible, especially towards the Poconos to Catskills, before a cold front sweeps northwest to southeast mid afternoon through early evening. Much cooler weather will follow for Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 230 AM Update... Main concern continues to be prospects for locally heavy rainfall, though it still does appear that actual flooding problems, if any, will be isolated. Lead wing of showers, associated with warm air advection aloft as well as an embedded shortwave, came in slightly ahead of schedule and has served to moisten up the atmosphere. This has occurred on the sharp Precipitable Water (Pwat) gradient, with surge of around 2 inches Pwat now entering the region. Towards dawn a bit of instability aloft could allow for embedded rumble or two of thunder as well. A few to several tenths of an inch of rain, with a few spots over a half inch, can be expected through dawn. This initial rain will not be a problem in terms of flooding, but it will prime things up to make the soil less receptive to additional rainfall. Second potential rainfall batch, this one with a more tropical connection to Michael well upstream, looks set to lift through Northeast PA-Catskills NY mid morning to early afternoon. It is appearing that this round will be the more capable of high rainfall rates due to thick warm cloud depths to 13 kft agl and high Pwat values in excess of 2 inches. Straight up model- derived rainfall amounts do not look too worrisome overall, but those other factors point to a scenario in which models often struggle to realize the potential localized maxima within the overall rain. Thus we still cannot rule out isolated flooding/heavy rain potential particularly along/east of I-81 in Northeast PA and south of I-88 in Central NY. Soils continue to be moist from what has been a wet pattern the last several weeks, as well. After a small break in the wake of the second batch, the cold front itself will probably have a narrow line of showers/thunder as it presses through about 2PM northwest to 8PM southeast. Potential for localized flooding does not look as much as with the wave earlier, because of progressive nature of front, the narrowness of the line, and its slight detachment from the deeper moisture advecting further east. However, ponding of water on roads etc. could easily occur from the quick downpour. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will move in quickly tonight. Even with the drier air mass, the cooler air will flow across a very warm Lake Ontario and trigger lake effect rain showers across the northern Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley towards dawn. Any rain will be light, but much cooler temperatures in the mid 40s-lower 50s and an increasing northwest wind will make it feel much more like Fall. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Friday: The cold front which pushes through the region today will continue moving offshore. This will allow for a temporary clearing window ahead of the next trough of low pressure approaching the region from the Great Lakes. Northwest winds will be coming off the Great lakes and with a temperature differentials starting to increase the generation of some lake effect showers i possible across northern portions of the area. Highs will likely sneak into the 50's. However northwest winds around 10 mph with bufkit data showing the potential for gusts to 20 mph will make it feel even cooler. Friday night and Saturday: A trough of low pressure will be the culprit for our next round of showers. Moisture looks considerably more limited than with recent events keeping the rain a lighter variety. Temperatures will fall to around 40 by Saturday morning and struggle to rise much during the day. Rainfall will be under a quarter of an inch from this feature. Westerly winds will continue with a few afternoon gusts Saturday afternoon around 15 mph. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday night through Sunday: High pressure will build into the region Saturday night before departing to our east on Sunday. This will give us another short window of clearing. With some clearing Saturday night, decreasing winds in the evening and 850 mb just falling a bit below 0C. All of these factors lead to the potential frost formation early Sunday morning with lows in the mid 30's for many spots. With more in the way of sunshine, high temperatures should warm into the 50's. Sunday night through Wednesday: Another cold front will move through the region on Monday with enough lift along the front to generate another round of scattered showers. Models are trending toward a stronger antifrontal wave forming along the front for Monday night and Tuesday which would result in another chance for a more stratiform rain. Timing on the various operational runs and ensembles still differs some at this point with some members also keeping the low south of our region. Model guidance looks a touch too warm for anything besides rain as well. Lake effect rain showers are then possible with the next trough of low pressure on Wednesday that moves through. Clouds and rain will likely keep temperatures down a bit for daytime highs in the upper 40's to mid 50's and lows in the upper 30's to low 40's. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z Update... Moist conditions with frontal system and resulting showers has caused deteriorating conditions. Fuel alternate ceilings have been or soon will be realized for all terminals, with some IFR as well for higher elevation terminals and within heavier showers. There is at least a chance of thunder during the daytime as well, though probability is too low to include in TAFs. A cold frontal passage this afternoon-early evening will bring a veering wind shift to WNW, along with eventual improvement to VFR, though an MVFR deck will return to several terminals late tonight. Until then, southerly winds of 5-10 knots will continue. Outlook... Friday...VFR, except MVFR in lake effect -SHRA possible KSYR- KRME; perhaps brief MVFR ceiling KBGM-KITH. Friday night through Saturday...Restrictions possible in showers as an upper wave passes. Saturday night through Sunday evening...VFR. Monday...Additional restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MDP