457 FXUS61 KBGM 110635 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 235 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A moist system moving across the region will cause occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be possible, especially towards the Poconos to Catskills, before a cold front sweeps northwest to southeast mid afternoon through early evening. Much cooler weather will follow for Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 230 AM Update... Main concern continues to be prospects for locally heavy rainfall, though it still does appear that actual flooding problems, if any, will be isolated. Lead wing of showers, associated with warm air advection aloft as well as an embedded shortwave, came in slightly ahead of schedule and has served to moisten up the atmosphere. This has occurred on the sharp Precipitable Water (Pwat) gradient, with surge of around 2 inches Pwat now entering the region. Towards dawn a bit of instability aloft could allow for embedded rumble or two of thunder as well. A few to several tenths of an inch of rain, with a few spots over a half inch, can be expected through dawn. This initial rain will not be a problem in terms of flooding, but it will prime things up to make the soil less receptive to additional rainfall. Second potential rainfall batch, this one with a more tropical connection to Michael well upstream, looks set to lift through Northeast PA-Catskills NY mid morning to early afternoon. It is appearing that this round will be the more capable of high rainfall rates due to thick warm cloud depths to 13 kft agl and high Pwat values in excess of 2 inches. Straight up model- derived rainfall amounts do not look too worrisome overall, but those other factors point to a scenario in which models often struggle to realize the potential localized maxima within the overall rain. Thus we still cannot rule out isolated flooding/heavy rain potential particularly along/east of I-81 in Northeast PA and south of I-88 in Central NY. Soils continue to be moist from what has been a wet pattern the last several weeks, as well. After a small break in the wake of the second batch, the cold front itself will probably have a narrow line of showers/thunder as it presses through about 2PM northwest to 8PM southeast. Potential for localized flooding does not look as much as with the wave earlier, because of progressive nature of front, the narrowness of the line, and its slight detachment from the deeper moisture advecting further east. However, ponding of water on roads etc. could easily occur from the quick downpour. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will move in quickly tonight. Even with the drier air mass, the cooler air will flow across a very warm Lake Ontario and trigger lake effect rain showers across the northern Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley towards dawn. Any rain will be light, but much cooler temperatures in the mid 40s-lower 50s and an increasing northwest wind will make it feel much more like Fall. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weather conditions Friday and Saturday will be in stark contrast to what we're currently seeing across the region. A relatively drier airmass should remain in place across the forecast area Friday in wake of the cold front. Despite this, though, Friday will likely remain on the dank side for just about the entire region. Strong westerly/northwesterly flow in wake of the front should result in a healthy dose of low-level cold advection for much of the day. Ample moisture will be picked up by this this airmass as it moves across Lake Ontario (where near- surface temperatures are in the 50s and 60s). This will result in plenty of cloud cover for Friday, with the possibility of some lake- enhanced (rain) showers over northern parts of our forecast area. Next shortwave trough is forecast to amplify a bit as it heads across the Ohio Valley Friday night and across our forecast area Saturday. A deep plume of moisture will likely accompany the shortwave trough and yield the possibility of showers until it exits the region sometime Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings (and deterministic output) suggest boundary layer temperatures could be near freezing Saturday morning. Even with this, I expect precipitation to remain in the form of rain (albeit a cold rain) given near saturation of the atmospheric column and forecast surface temperatures in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... After the passage of the shortwave trough Saturday, surface high pressure will quickly move across the region in a fast-moving flow aloft. If skies clear enough Saturday night heading into Sunday, we may see enough radiational cooling to see some frost Sunday morning. An unsettled weather pattern will likely continue for our area for early next week. Southwesterly flow/moisture increases Sunday night ahead of the next cold front. It looks like the front should move through our area during the day Monday, although timing discrepancies exist among the medium range models. Regardless, a quick-moving shortwave trough should move across the forecast area Monday night/Tuesday and push the front east. We may have a brief period of lower precipitation probabilities Tuesday, before the next system heads toward our corner of the world Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z Update... Moist conditions with frontal system and resulting showers will cause deteriorating conditions through the morning. Fuel alternate ceilings will be realized for all terminals eventually, though KBGM-KAVP-KRME should even dip into IFR at times later this morning. There is at least a chance of thunder during the daytime as well, though probability is too low to include in TAFs. A cold frontal passage this afternoon-early evening will bring a veering wind shift to WNW, along with eventual improvement to VFR. Until then, SE to S wind will persist at 6-10 knots, and even low level wind shear early this morning due to SSW 30-40 knot jet at 2 kft agl. Outlook... Late Thursday night-Friday...VFR, except MVFR in lake effect -SHRA possible KSYR-KRME; perhaps brief MVFR ceiling KBGM-KITH. Friday night through Saturday...Restrictions possible in showers as an upper wave passes. Saturday night through Sunday evening...VFR. Monday...Additional restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...DAB LONG TERM...DAB AVIATION...MDP