514 FXUS61 KBGM 110231 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1031 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain along a frontal system will move across the region tonight and Thursday with periods of heavy rain possible. Minor flooding may become an issue in some locations Thursday. Much cooler weather is expected starting Friday. A round of cool rain showers is expected Saturday, before a dry Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 1015 pm update... Adjusted clouds up some more with mid and high clouds across most of the area. Light rain falling out of a mid deck across the far west and southwest. This is handled well with increases forecast in pops as more moisture moves into the same area and ceilings fall. Adjusted temperatures and dewpoints down a little also. 7 pm UPDATE... Minor changes as clouds advance into the area. showers to follow later this evening. Upped cloud amounts. Pops looked good. With few low clouds temperatures have fallen faster than expected and lowered hourly temperatures. Late tonight temperatures nearly steady with warm advection and rain. 345 pm update... Main concerns in the near term are focused on the incoming rain tonight and during the day Thursday...with the potential for periods of heavy rain leading to isolated minor flooding issues. High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast and an approaching/deepening low pressure system over the upper Midwest will continue to produce a strong southerly flow with an abundance of moisture advection across the PA/NY region today and tonight. Highs today are well above average...into the 70s and lower 80s with dew points in the 60s. A layer of enhanced moisture in the low levels has persisted today and allowed for a broken strato-cumulus layer of clouds to hang around most of the day. A ribbon of deep tropical moisture associated with Michael will get caught in the broad southerly flow across the Appalachians and interact with an upper s/w sweeping across the region later tonight and Thursday morning. The first wave of precipitation will be along this upper wave...with somewhat of a break in the broad rain shield by mid morning behind the gradually departing s/w, and ahead of the approaching cold front. Should see a bit more mixing in the boundary layer during the late morning and afternoon hours, with the precip becoming more convective looking as instability increases and enough shear remains present to enhance some of the rain showers and trigger a few thunderstorms as well. Main threat from storms will be lightning and brief heavy downpours. A progressive cold front and overall fast flow pattern should mitigate the threat for flooding, but cannot rule out minor localized issues in the pour drainage/urban areas...or locations that are still sensitive from recent heavy rain events. Total rainfall amounts from this system are still expected to range from a third to half an inch in the Finger Lakes...to around three quarters of an inch to 1 inch from the srn Tug Hill to the srn tier of NY...and 1-1.5 inches in the Catskills and the Poconos. The precipitation is expected to come to an end quickly early Thursday evening with cooler and drier air moving in behind the front. Although, even with a drier air mass, the cooler air will flow across a very warm Lake Ontario and trigger lake enhanced rain showers across the nrn Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley into Friday morning. Rain will be light...but much cooler temperatures in the 40s and an increasing nw wind will make it feel much cooler and much more like fall. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weather conditions Friday and Saturday will be in stark contrast to what we're currently seeing across the region. A relatively drier airmass should remain in place across the forecast area Friday in wake of the cold front. Despite this, though, Friday will likely remain on the dank side for just about the entire region. Strong westerly/northwesterly flow in wake of the front should result in a healthy dose of low-level cold advection for much of the day. Ample moisture will be picked up by this this airmass as it moves across Lake Ontario (where near- surface temperatures are in the 50s and 60s). This will result in plenty of cloud cover for Friday, with the possibility of some lake- enhanced (rain) showers over northern parts of our forecast area. Next shortwave trough is forecast to amplify a bit as it heads across the Ohio Valley Friday night and across our forecast area Saturday. A deep plume of moisture will likely accompany the shortwave trough and yield the possibility of showers until it exits the region sometime Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings (and deterministic output) suggest boundary layer temperatures could be near freezing Saturday morning. Even with this, I expect precipitation to remain in the form of rain (albeit a cold rain) given near saturation of the atmospheric column and forecast surface temperatures in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... After the passage of the shortwave trough Saturday, surface high pressure will quickly move across the region in a fast-moving flow aloft. If skies clear enough Saturday night heading into Sunday, we may see enough radiational cooling to see some frost Sunday morning. An unsettled weather pattern will likely continue for our area for early next week. Southwesterly flow/moisture increases Sunday night ahead of the next cold front. It looks like the front should move through our area during the day Monday, although timing discrepancies exist among the medium range models. Regardless, a quick-moving shortwave trough should move across the forecast area Monday night/Tuesday and push the front east. We may have a brief period of lower precipitation probabilities Tuesday, before the next system heads toward our corner of the world Wednesday. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 00z update... Bottom line, little change from the previous set of terminal forecasts. VFR this evening will give way to deteriorating conditions later tonight and Thursday, as rain moves across the region. Most probable restrictive categories are fuel alternate-MVFR, but occasional IFR is possible, especially at the more elevated terminal sites (KBGM and KITH), and also just about anywhere in brief heavier showers. A cold frontal passage late Thursday will bring an abrupt wind shift, along with likely improvement to VFR, at least for the NY terminal sites. As for the winds, LLWS conditions are still expected later tonight into early Thursday morning, as a low-level jet overruns a more stable, lighter flow regime at the surface. Otherwise, winds should average 8-12 kt (occasionally gusty Thursday) from the S-SW. Winds will shift to NW late Thursday afternoon at the NY terminal sites. Outlook... Thursday night-Friday... General improvement to VFR. Brief restrictions in lake-effect rain showers possible at KSYR and KRME. Saturday...Restrictions possible in light rain. Sunday...VFR. Monday...Additional restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC SHORT TERM...DAB LONG TERM...DAB AVIATION...BJT/MLJ/MWG