409 FXUS61 KBGM 101915 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Wednesday will be another warm and dry day, before a strong cold front crosses the region Thursday with a round of rainfall. Much cooler weather is expected starting Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... No major changes made to the late morning forecast update. Looks to be a bit more cloud cover today than previously anticipated. Also nudged temperatures down a deg or two. No significant changes though. Previous Discussion... Few changes with the sunrise update, forecast on track. A frontal boundary will draw closer to the region from the northwest with tropical moisture streaming northward into the area ahead of the front through tonight. With high pressure still having limited influence as it pushes away we should still have a mainly dry day today with the potential for a few spotty showers in the late afternoon and evening. Deeper moisture will be rung out ahead of the cold front with rain chances gradually increasing from west to east late tonight. The initial surge of rainfall looks to start just after midnight from the Finger Lakes south to Elmira and closer to sunrise across the southern Catskills. A dry slot is also modeled to push into southwestern portions of the area around sunrise as well. Rainfall for the Wednesday night period looks to stay at a half inch or less with a blend of the SREF, WPC and mesoscale models used with the QPF forecast. Highs today will likely once again be well into the 70's to around 80, likely a degree or two warmer than most model guidance given the warm modeled boundary layer temperatures. Lows tonight will only fall into the 60's due to warm southerly flow, clouds and rain. A rumble or two of thunder can not be ruled out either. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weather conditions Friday and Saturday will be in stark contrast to what we're currently seeing across the region. A relatively drier airmass should remain in place across the forecast area Friday in wake of the cold front. Despite this, though, Friday will likely remain on the dank side for just about the entire region. Strong westerly/northwesterly flow in wake of the front should result in a healthy dose of low-level cold advection for much of the day. Ample moisture will be picked up by this this airmass as it moves across Lake Ontario (where near- surface temperatures are in the 50s and 60s). This will result in plenty of cloud cover for Friday, with the possibility of some lake- enhanced (rain) showers over northern parts of our forecast area. Next shortwave trough is forecast to amplify a bit as it heads across the Ohio Valley Friday night and across our forecast area Saturday. A deep plume of moisture will likely accompany the shortwave trough and yield the possibility of showers until it exits the region sometime Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings (and deterministic output) suggest boundary layer temperatures could be near freezing Saturday morning. Even with this, I expect precipitation to remain in the form of rain (albeit a cold rain) given near saturation of the atmospheric column and forecast surface temperatures in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... After the passage of the shortwave trough Saturday, surface high pressure will quickly move across the region in a fast-moving flow aloft. If skies clear enough Saturday night heading into Sunday, we may see enough radiational cooling to see some frost Sunday morning. An unsettled weather pattern will likely continue for our area for early next week. Southwesterly flow/moisture increases Sunday night ahead of the next cold front. It looks like the front should move through our area during the day Monday, although timing discrepancies exist among the medium range models. Regardless, a quick-moving shortwave trough should move across the forecast area Monday night/Tuesday and push the front east. We may have a brief period of lower precipitation probabilities Tuesday, before the next system heads toward our corner of the world Wednesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR through the rest of today...with only brief periods of MVFR cigs at KITH and KBGM due to a very moist southerly flow. Ceilings and visibilities will lower to MVFR and IFR with the next round of showers overnight tonight. LLWS is also possible overnight...and is expected to subside by sunrise Thursday. A broad area of rain will spread in after midnight tonight from the w/sw...and then become more convective between 10-12Z with scattered showers through the rest of the morning...brief periods of +RA are possible. Winds begin to shift to the sw after 15Z. Outlook... Thursday afternoon...MVFR and IFR with periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Thursday night through Saturday...Improving conditions Thursday night then VFR with the exception of a few lake effect rain showers which may cause brief restrictions to MVFR on Friday mainly across KSYR and KRME. Another shot of rain is possible late Friday night and Saturday with the passage of a trough. Sunday...VFR. Monday...Additional restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG SHORT TERM...DAB LONG TERM...DAB AVIATION...BJT/MWG