376 FXUS61 KBGM 101542 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1142 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Wednesday will be another warm and dry day, before a strong cold front crosses the region Thursday with a round of rainfall. Much cooler weather is expected starting Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No major changes made to the late morning forecast update. Looks to be a bit more cloud cover today than previously anticipated. Also nudged temperatures down a deg or two. No significant changes though. Previous Discussion... Few changes with the sunrise update, forecast on track. A frontal boundary will draw closer to the region from the northwest with tropical moisture streaming northward into the area ahead of the front through tonight. With high pressure still having limited influence as it pushes away we should still have a mainly dry day today with the potential for a few spotty showers in the late afternoon and evening. Deeper moisture will be rung out ahead of the cold front with rain chances gradually increasing from west to east late tonight. The initial surge of rainfall looks to start just after midnight from the Finger Lakes south to Elmira and closer to sunrise across the southern Catskills. A dry slot is also modeled to push into southwestern portions of the area around sunrise as well. Rainfall for the Wednesday night period looks to stay at a half inch or less with a blend of the SREF, WPC and mesoscale models used with the QPF forecast. Highs today will likely once again be well into the 70's to around 80, likely a degree or two warmer than most model guidance given the warm modeled boundary layer temperatures. Lows tonight will only fall into the 60's due to warm southerly flow, clouds and rain. A rumble or two of thunder can not be ruled out either. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 410 AM Update... Wet period will continue Thursday as warm front/cold front combination passes, which then leads to the coolest air mass so far this season as we head towards the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out, especially southeastern zones/Poconos/Catskills. Rain and embedded thunder aloft, will have moved across the area by dawn Thursday with the warm front of the system. A relative gap/dry slot appears likely to produce a lull in the action for a time Thursday morning, before the cold front sweeps from northwest around midday to southeast by late afternoon- early evening. Ribbon of deep moisture with Precipitable Water (Pwat) values of around 2 inches, will exist along the incoming front even without an upstream contribution from Hurricane Michael. The pace of the front appears likely to not allow that additional tropical moisture get into our area initially, yet Pwat will still be around 4 standard deviations above normal. However, there may be a slight contribution for Poconos- Catskills by Thursday afternoon-evening. Initial rain from late tonight through Thursday morning, while locally briefly heavy will by itself probably not pose a flooding issue, though it will prime soils to be less receptive to additional rainfall. The crux as to whether we get actual flooding problems will be how much new convection can fire along the cold front Thursday midday through afternoon. Abundant cloud cover, low Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and delayed jet support all point to a limited threat. However, probability for 500 J/kg CAPE does increase late in the day east of I-81 in NEPA and south of I-88 in CNY as can be seen via the SREF. Thus it is that area - i.e. Poconos-Southern Catskills - that has somewhat better potential for isolated excessive rainfall/flooding. The drier air will filter in fairly quickly behind the front Thursday evening which will quickly cease threat for heavier rain. However, there will be significant cold air advection that sets up which will allow for a continuous supply of lake induced clouds across the region through Friday with periods of lake enhanced rain showers as well, mainly northern Finger Lakes over to the western Mohawk Valley/northwestern Catskills foothills. A really Fall-ish feel Friday with highs of only upper 40s-mid 50s and breezy northwest wind. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 415 AM Update... Quite a chilly period during which we will realize we are already well into Fall. Main forecast adjustment, is that models and especially the ECMWF are stronger with an upper wave that will quickly translate across the area Saturday. It is enough to increase the chance of showers up to midday Saturday, before drier air cuts back on coverage in the afternoon. Other than that, little change made to the long term forecast with details below. Previous discussion... After Saturday morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s, afternoon temperatures on Saturday will climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s. The high continues to build to the northeast later in the day Saturday and early Sunday with quiet but cool conditions expected. If the high pressure dominates and skies clear out, there may be enough raditional cooling to produce patchy frost Sunday morning. Clouds increase through the day Sunday with temperatures still on the cooler side, into the mid to upper 50s, with the next system bringing more chances for rain to the area later in the day Sunday and into Monday. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR throughout the day with a southerly wind around 10 knots. Dense fog will burn off by mid-morning around KELM. A stratus deck around KAVP will scatter out at times before completely lifting to VFR by late morning. Ceilings and visibilities will lower to MVFR and IFR with the next round of showers overnight tonight. LLWS is also possible overnight tonight to around sunrise Thursday. Outlook... Thursday...MVFR and IFR with periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Thursday night through Saturday...Improving conditions Thursday night then VFR with the exception of a few lake effect rain showers which may cause brief restrictions to MVFR on Saturday. Sunday...VFR. && .CLIMATE... New daily records for highest minimum temperatures were set at Syracuse and Binghamton yesterday October 9th. Syracuse only got down to 70 degrees, breaking a 105-year old record of 64 degrees from 1913. Binghamton meanwhile had a low of 65, easily breaking its record of 59 degrees that had been tied last year and first set in 2007. The record for Avoca, 68 degrees, was also set last year and was not broken this time with a low of 65 yesterday. Record highest minimums for today October 10th are 67/1949 for Syracuse, 56/1954 for Binghamton, and 65/1990 plus 1914 in Avoca. Binghamton, with its shorter period of record, will very easily break its record again this morning, whereas Syracuse and Avoca will at least approach their records. For the 11th, lows tonight are forecast to exceed daily records, but with strong cold air advection behind the cold front Thursday evening actual calendar day lows will likely occur at the very end of the day and not break records. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...BJT/MDP AVIATION...MWG CLIMATE...