436 FXUS61 KBGM 100652 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 252 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Wednesday will be another warm and dry day, before a strong cold front crosses the region Thursday with a round of rainfall. Much cooler weather is expected starting Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A frontal boundary will draw closer to the region from the northwest with tropical moisture streaming northward into the area ahead of the front through tonight. With high pressure still having limited influence as it pushes away we should still have a mainly dry day today with the potential for a few spotty showers in the late afternoon and evening. Deeper moisture will be rung out ahead of the cold front with rain chances gradually increasing from west to east late tonight. The initial surge of rainfall looks to start just after midnight from the Finger Lakes south to Elmira and closer to sunrise across the southern Catskills. A dry slot is also modeled to push into southwestern portions of the area around sunrise as well. Rainfall for the Wednesday night period looks to stay at a half inch or less with a blend of the SREF, WPC and mesoscale models used with the QPF forecast. Highs today will likely once again be well into the 70's to around 80, likely a degree or two warmer than most model guidance given the warm modeled boundary layer temperatures. Lows tonight will only fall into the 60's due to warm southerly flow, clouds and rain. A rumble or two of thunder can not be ruled out either. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 315 pm update... Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the potential for heavy rain during the day Thursday as a cold front from the west sweeps through and combines with a ribbon of deep moisture from the remnants of Michael. The primary forcing mechanisms with the Thursday system will be a surface warm front lifting north across the region in the early morning hours, and a lead upper level short wave pushing in from the sw...both becoming situated within the favorable right entrance region of a strengthening jet over srn Ontario/Quebec. There are still some timing differences in the placement of these features...with the upper trough and sfc front moving ewd out ahead of the main upper low and becoming somewhat dislodged from the most favorable upper level dynamics. The upper s/w will slow down and get stretched out along the ern seaboard north of the remnants of Michael as the tropical system moves newd through the Carolinas. A ribbon of deep tropical moisture will get entrained in the southerly flow across the Appalachians and interact with the passage of the upper trough and the incoming cold front to produce a broad area of moderate to occasionally heavy rain...mainly during the morning and afternoon hours on Thursday. There may be limited instability...with elevated CAPE values around 200-400 J/kg and SI values around -2...but the air mass will be very moist...PWATs around 2 inches, and very efficient with precipitation production. Cannot rule out thunderstorms, even with the weak amt of instability. Deep layer shear may be sufficient to support strong updrafts...which may also enhance the rainfall production and lead to locally heavy downpours within the thunderstorms. At this time it appears the most favorable area for heavy rain will be across ne PA...into the far srn Catskills of NY. The drier air will filter in fairly quickly behind the front Thursday evening and allow most of the heavy rain to come to and end. There will however be a cool nw flow that sets up which will allow for a continuous supply of lake induced clouds across the region Thur night through Friday with periods of lake enhanced rain showers as well, mainly from the nrn Finger Lakes over to the wrn Mohawk Valley and into the foot hills of the nw Catskills. The rain will likely not lead to much accumulation...but will combine with breezy nw winds and much cooler temperatures...highs on Friday only reaching into the lower 50s. It will really feel like fall on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 315 pm update... Wind trajectories shift to the n/nw over Lake Ontario Friday night as a weak upper wave tracks quickly across the region...which will broaden the area of rain showers across a larger portion of central NY...possibly all the way down to the PA border at times. High pressure begins to build in across the Ohio Valley region early Saturday...which will allow the winds to start to back to the w/sw and lift any remaining rain showers to the north and out of the area. Conditions on Saturday should be fairly dry...but remain on the cool side. After morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s...afternoon temperatures on Saturday will climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s. The high continues to build to the ne later in the day Saturday and early Sunday with quiet but cool conditions expected. If the high pressure dominates and skies clear out...there may be enough raditional cooling to produce patchy frost Sun morning. Clouds increase through the day Sunday with temperatures still on the cooler side...into the mid to upper 50s...with the next system bringing more chances for rain to the area later in the day Sunday and into Monday. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR throughout the day with a southerly wind around 10 knots. Dense fog will continue at KELM through the overnight with occasional restrictions all the way down to LIFR. This fog will burn off after sunrise. A stratus deck is expected to be persistent at KAVP through most of the morning today but will scatter out at times before completely lifting to VFR by the afternoon. Ceilings will likely lower some tonight with the next round of showers likely holding off till around or after 06Z Thursday. Outlook... Thursday...MVFR and IFR with periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Thursday night through Saturday...Improving conditions Thursday night then VFR with the exception of a few lake effect rain showers which may cause brief restrictions to MVFR on Saturday. Sunday...VFR. && .CLIMATE... Some record low maximum temperatures are likely to occur the next couple of mornings. This morning, Binghamton will likely be warmer than the the previous value of 56. On the 11th, all three sites are currently forecasted to surpass the previous record low maximum temperatures. Please check the RER's for more information. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MWG CLIMATE...MWG