222 FXUS61 KBGM 100039 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 839 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Wednesday will be another warm and dry day, before a strong cold front crosses the region Thursday with a round of rainfall. Much cooler weather is expected starting Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 830 pm update... Very little change. Temperatures will remain warm with dewpoints in the 60s. Similar to the last few days more clouds will be over NEPA and the Catskills tonight and tomorrow. It will remain dry though. Wednesday another warm day with highs back into the mid and upper 70s and lower 80s. previous discussion... Very little change is expected over the next 36 hours. Deep southwesterly flow will maintain unusually warm temperatures and high levels of humidity in the area. Clouds will vary both longitudinally, and with time, as upslope flow works on the moisture fields across NEPA and the south central NY counties, while downslope tends to erode cloudiness across much of the Finger Lakes region. Overcast conditions will tend to dominate late at night and the early morning with variable amounts of clearing late in the day and evening. Patchy fog and low clouds may shroud some of the elevated highways in NEPA. Tropical moisture from "Michael" will surge north later Wednesday and begin interacting with a strong cold front bearing down on the region from the Great Lakes. Timing is still somewhat uncertain, but model consensus is high enough to at least bring high PoP rain into the picture very late in this forecast period. Some models suggest intensifying the upper jet to the north, with hints of a possible PRE setting up a band of heavy rainfall across NEPA and SENY for Thursday. Watch this closely. Muggy nights in the 60s are expected, with tomorrows highs similar to today...low-mid 80s west and mid-70s south-east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 315 pm update... Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the potential for heavy rain during the day Thursday as a cold front from the west sweeps through and combines with a ribbon of deep moisture from the remnants of Michael. The primary forcing mechanisms with the Thursday system will be a surface warm front lifting north across the region in the early morning hours, and a lead upper level short wave pushing in from the sw...both becoming situated within the favorable right entrance region of a strengthening jet over srn Ontario/Quebec. There are still some timing differences in the placement of these features...with the upper trough and sfc front moving ewd out ahead of the main upper low and becoming somewhat dislodged from the most favorable upper level dynamics. The upper s/w will slow down and get stretched out along the ern seaboard north of the remnants of Michael as the tropical system moves newd through the Carolinas. A ribbon of deep tropical moisture will get entrained in the southerly flow across the Appalachians and interact with the passage of the upper trough and the incoming cold front to produce a broad area of moderate to occasionally heavy rain...mainly during the morning and afternoon hours on Thursday. There may be limited instability...with elevated CAPE values around 200-400 J/kg and SI values around -2...but the air mass will be very moist...PWATs around 2 inches, and very efficient with precipitation production. Cannot rule out thunderstorms, even with the weak amt of instability. Deep layer shear may be sufficient to support strong updrafts...which may also enhance the rainfall production and lead to locally heavy downpours within the thunderstorms. At this time it appears the most favorable area for heavy rain will be across ne PA...into the far srn Catskills of NY. The drier air will filter in fairly quickly behind the front Thursday evening and allow most of the heavy rain to come to and end. There will however be a cool nw flow that sets up which will allow for a continuous supply of lake induced clouds across the region Thur night through Friday with periods of lake enhanced rain showers as well, mainly from the nrn Finger Lakes over to the wrn Mohawk Valley and into the foot hills of the nw Catskills. The rain will likely not lead to much accumulation...but will combine with breezy nw winds and much cooler temperatures...highs on Friday only reaching into the lower 50s. It will really feel like fall on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 315 pm update... Wind trajectories shift to the n/nw over Lake Ontario Friday night as a weak upper wave tracks quickly across the region...which will broaden the area of rain showers across a larger portion of central NY...possibly all the way down to the PA border at times. High pressure begins to build in across the Ohio Valley region early Saturday...which will allow the winds to start to back to the w/sw and lift any remaining rain showers to the north and out of the area. Conditions on Saturday should be fairly dry...but remain on the cool side. After morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s...afternoon temperatures on Saturday will climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s. The high continues to build to the ne later in the day Saturday and early Sunday with quiet but cool conditions expected. If the high pressure dominates and skies clear out...there may be enough raditional cooling to produce patchy frost Sun morning. Clouds increase through the day Sunday with temperatures still on the cooler side...into the mid to upper 50s...with the next system bringing more chances for rain to the area later in the day Sunday and into Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid level strato-cu that was over the region earlier today has now mostly dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. All taf sites are currently VFR (at 23z) with just some sct clouds around 4-5k ft agl, and another cloud layer around 15k ft agl. Conditions are expected to remain VFR areawide through at least 06z. Then, late tonight into Wednesday morning some patchy low cloudiness may return to all but the northern terminals (KSYR, KITH & KRME). Best chance to see at least tempo MVFR or fuel alternate CIGS is between about 10/09-15z...especially at KAVP, KBGM and KELM. Could also see occasional MVFR VIS restrictions at KELM and KAVP right around sunrise in patchy fog/mist. Between 10/15-18z cloud bases should scatter and lift, bringing all site back to VFR. VFR conditions are expected to continue at all sites into Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Winds will be southerly between 5-10 kt through much of the taf period. Outlook... Wednesday night...Rain developing with MVFR-IFR restrictions. Thursday...IFR with heavy rain south. MVFR with showers north. Thunderstorms possible. Thursday night through Saturday...Improving conditions Thursday night then VFR with the exception of a few lake effect rain showers which may cause brief restrictions to MVFR. Sunday...VFR. && .CLIMATE... Some record low maximum temperatures are likely to occur the next couple of mornings. This morning the 9th, the record low mins were 59 at Binghamton, 64 at Syracuse and 68 at Avoca. On the 10th, Binghamton will likely be warmer than the the previous value of 56. On the 11th, all three sites are currently forecasted to surpass the previous record low maximum temperatures. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB/TAC NEAR TERM...JAB/TAC SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...JAB/MJM CLIMATE...