253 FXUS63 KARX 111104 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 600 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Main forecast concern is cold temps, with freezing temps likely over much of the area tonight. Early this morning, an upper trough was located over the MN arrowhead. Widespread low clouds were found in the wake of a cold front from the Dakotas eastward into the Great Lakes region. Some showers were occurring mainly across northern WI on the backside of the surface low located over Lake Superior and some patchy drizzle farther south under the low stratus. Low-level cold advection will continue today with high temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s, some 20 to 30 degrees colder than yesterday. The low clouds likely will linger through much of the day, possibly thinning from the south late in the day. Winds in the mixed boundary layer will remain in the 20 to 30 kt range, so expect gusty northwest winds through the day. Even with low cloud cover likely persisting into tonight and additional mid/high clouds streaming across the area overnight tonight ahead of an upper trough, temps should fall into the 20s to low 30s. Because of this, have went ahead and issued a Freeze Warning for early Friday morning for all areas southwest of I-94 where a widespread killing freeze has not occurred yet this season. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 A chilly and relatively dry period is expected late this week into the first half of next week. A prevailing northwest flow pattern will keep temps below average into next week. The first in a series of upper troughs will slide southeast through the flow on Friday, with the primary impact being some increased cloud cover. Temps will remain very cool, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A brief "warm up" into mid 40s to possibly some 50s is expected on Saturday with warm advection ahead of another upper trough and associated cold front sliding through late Saturday. Upper forcing is expected to be fairly week, so maintained only low-end precip chances near the front Saturday afternoon/evening. Another chilly airmass will invade the area Saturday night through Monday with highs falling back into the 30s and 40s, and lows down into the 20s and 30s. Some modest temperature recovery is expected by Tues ahead of another cold front and upper trough. At this time, the strongest upper support looks to remain to the north, so may not see much in the way of precip with this system. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Cigs: large swath of mostly mvfr stratus hung up across the region, post the departing low pressure system and in region of cold air advection/northwest flow a loft. How soon this departs is the big question and the models are rather aggressive with exiting the low clouds northeast by the afternoon. There is a tendency to clear too fast in these northwest flow/fall scenarios and going to trend the forecast on the more pessimistic side. Confidence not exceedingly high so some adjustments to forecasts might be needed if trends start to lean that way. Low clouds should give way to VFR bkn (or sct) later tonight, with more mid clouds returning quickly with an upper level shortwave. WX/vsby: isentropic upglide through the low saturation is kicking off some sprinkles/drizzle/flurries? early this morning. No vsby reductions noted. This quickly lifts as the morning wears on. No impacts expected and will not include in forecast. Winds: staying strong and gusty through the day, losing the gusts this evening but hold near 10 kts overnight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Flooding will continue on some area rivers. Look for elevated water levels to continue into this weekend. Be sure to monitor the latest river forecasts if you live near or have interests along area rivers. See the latest river/flood statements for details. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for WIZ032-033-041- 053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Rieck HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp