869 
FXUS63 KARX 102346
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Main forecast concerns in the short term are on strong westerly 
winds tonight into Thursday morning and much colder temperatures 
moving in.

Low pressure will track from north-central Wisconsin into eastern 
Upper Michigan this evening. Much colder air moves into the region 
behind the low along with strong northwest winds. Look for winds to 
increase to 15 to 25 mph tonight with gusts to around 40 mph 
possible in open unsheltered areas.  A few showers may linger across 
areas mainly north of Interstate 90 tonight and cannot rule out a 
few snow flakes mixing in over north-central Wisconsin late tonight. 
Look for temperatures to fall into the mid and upper 30s overnight. 

High pressure gradually builds into the region on Thursday into 
Thursday night with rather cold air settling in. Highs on Thursday 
will struggle to get out of the 30s at many locations and a 
persistent northwest winds will make it feel even colder. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Main forecast concerns in the long term are on continued colder 
temperatures. 

A widespread freeze is expected across the area Thursday night which 
will likely end the growing season.  Look for low temperatures to 
fall into the upper 20s at most locations.  A freeze warning will 
likely be needed.  We could see slightly warmer temperatures return 
on Saturday ahead of the next cold front with highs edging into the 
lower 50s.  Then, cold air returns for Sunday with 850 mb 
temperatures falling into the -6 to -10 C range. Highs on Sunday 
will once again only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  A chilly 
night is in store for the region Sunday night with lows expected to 
drop back into the 20s at most locations. Aside from small 
precipitation chances on Saturday with the passage of a cold 
front, better chances for precipitation return Tuesday. The cool 
pattern will remain over the region through at least the middle 
of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Extensive cold air advection stratus field will keep area in MVFR to 
IFR conditions well into Thursday. In addition to ceilings, also 
seeing pockets of light rain or drizzle that temporarily lower 
visibilities. Highest risk for precipitation will be this evening 
most likely as strongest cold air advection continues.

Biggest question is when will conditions improve. Models still 
showing signs of some drier air mixing in during the afternoon 
Thursday so will continue trend of lifting ceilings in time, and 
hopefully going VFR late in period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Flooding will continue on some area rivers. Look for elevated 
water levels to continue into this weekend. Be sure to monitor the
latest river forecasts if you live near or have interests along 
area rivers. See the latest river/flood statements for details. 

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Shea
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp