143 FXUS63 KAPX 100402 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1202 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1029 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Moisture rich flow continues unabated across the area as extremely amplified mid and upper level pattern remains. Stationary surface front meandering across northern Michigan, with the most active weather once again found along and north of this front into eastern upper Michigan. Passing subtle waves working over this moisture rich airmass continues to spark a few showers and thunderstorms across northern lower. Nothing severe, but no doubt brief heavy rain is occurring with some of the showers. Not much change anticipated through the remainder of tonight, with focus for more persistent showers and thunderstorms remaining north of the big bridge, with activity further south remaining much more scattered/isolated. Once again, nothing severe with brief periods of heavy rain the only concern. Gonna be a mild night, especially across northern lower where lows will largely remain in the 60s. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...Very warm and humid with increasing chances of showers and storms... High Impact Weather Potential...Chance of non-severe thunderstorms thru the night. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Warm/stationary front remains stalled over the Straits this afternoon...extending SW thru Central Wisconsin into the Central and Southern Plains where the main surface low resides. Elongated area of convection remains north and west of this boundary. As anticipated...scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are developing over our CWA...mainly Northern Lower Michigan...as daytime instability builds feeding off dwpts well into the 60s. MUCAPES have surpassed expectations...rising to around 2000 J/kg across much of Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon per latest SPC mesoanalysis. Not much in the way of organization to the convection and wind fields are not very impressive...so still expect this diurnal convection will remain sub-severe and should diminish with sunset/loss of diurnal instability. Meanwhile...not much is happening over Eastern Upper Michigan attm where temps are holding mainly in the 50s to low 60s...producing virtually no instability. Will likely need to wait until later this evening and overnight for better chances of showers/storms as another wave rides along the front and the main surface low begins to eject out of the Plains toward the Western Great Lakes region. Unusually warm mid October temps will continue thru tonight for most locations. Low temps tonight will range from upper 40s to lower 50s in Eastern Upper michigan to the low to mid 60s across much of Northern Lower Michigan. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...Summer-like temperatures and dew points Wednesday, then falling below normal Thursday and Friday... High Impact Weather Potential: Minor, with a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and winds nearing gale force Thursday into Friday. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Increasing winds Wednesday in advance of approaching system, colder air and strong winds nearing gale force Thursday on the backside of the exiting storm system. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The storm system which has been strengthening in the Plains and slowly lifting north toward the region since the weekend, will finally lift across the nrn Great Lakes Wednesday, before exiting into Quebec Thursday. Model soundings continue to show abundant moisture and just enough instability for convection and locally heavy rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday night(0-3km MuCape near 1000j/kg, 850/700mb lapse rates nearing 6 c/km, pwat values nearing 1.50 in and 850mb dew pts of 16c). 850/700mb qvectors show the best forcing through Wednesday evening located over Lake Superior and Ontario as the approaching system lifts right up over the top of the state. However right entrance region forcing of 120kt 300mb jet, will enhance pcpn across all of nrn Lower Michigan through Wednesday night. A large area of high pressure will then slowly drift over the state Thursday and Friday on the backside of the exiting storm system, while an upper trough becomes centered over the state. Westerly flow lake effect pcpn will largely dominate the region Thursday afternoon through Friday. Over lake instability and lake induced pcpn will quickly increase, as 850 mb temps fall to -6c Thursday afternoon before cooling to -8c Friday while model soudnings show low lvl inversion heights around 5k (Great Lake water temps linger around 16c). Will mention some snow Thursday night and early Friday as (inland away from the warming effects of the Great Lakes) as model soundings show a sfc based warm layer less then 1100 ft. Windy conditions are expected across all of nrn Michigan beginning Wednesday night and Thursday as cold northwest flow floods the region on the backside of the exiting system. Model soundings are currently showing wind max of 35-40kt at the top of the mixed layer with trends suggesting winds will largely remain below advisory criteria through the forecast period. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A much colder and more seasonal period for the Great Lakes this weekend and to begin the next work week. An area of high pressure over the region Saturday and cold temps aloft in weak upper trough, will generate mainly dry conditions with northwest flow lake induced pcpn across northern Michigan. Widespread pcpn will overspread the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday, as yet another system lifts north from the Plains and into the region. Cold air and west flow lake induced pcpn is expected again across northern Michigan Tuesday, on the backside of the exiting storm system. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1159 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Challenging forecast continues as a stationary front meanders across the area. Expect lowest cigs (IFR producing) to impact KPLN for the next several hours, with cigs gradually lifting during the morning. Winds turning northerly have brought IFR conditions to KTVC this past evening. Winds shift back offshore should result in lifting cigs and improving visibilities this morning. Varying visibilities at other locations, dropping conditions to MVFR to IFR at times. A few showers possible at times, with better rain chances arriving later today with the approach of deeper moisture. Period of low level wind shear this morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A strengthening system lifting into the Great Lakes Wednesday, before exiting northeast into Quebec Wednesday night, will generate several rounds of storms through Wednesday night. Strong southerly winds will increase over northern Great Lakes waters early Thursday morning before slowly diminishing and trending northwest Thursday evening and Friday. Winds on Lake Michigan nearshore waters may near gale criteria Thursday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MB NEAR TERM...MR SHORT TERM...SR LONG TERM...SR AVIATION...MB MARINE...SR