449 FXUS64 KAMA 101753 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .AVIATION... For the 18z TAFs... Low clouds over northwest part of forecast area expected to dissipate during the afternoon. Lingering MVFR ceiling at DHT expected to erode by 20z. Light surface winds expected at all terminals until arrival of cold front tonight. Northeast and east surface winds behind boundary expected to be in the 10 to 15 kt range. Conditions expected to deteriorate as MVFR ceilings and fog move in from the north after 09z Thursday. IFR conditions may develop Thursday morning as moist warm air advection and isentropic lift prevail in upslope flow. Cockrell && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 607 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ AVIATION...12Z TAFS... VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at all TAF sites as skies will become mostly clear today. KDHT may still have a little trouble getting rid of the mid level cloud deck that's been lingering. The last 6 hours of the TAF period could go MVFR/IFR due to low clouds with the next cold front. KDHT and KGUY would be the two sites affected by the low clouds, KAMA may have some MVFR visibility issues at the end of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the north to start the TAF period, then shift southerly in the 18-00z time frame. General speeds are expected to be around 10kts. Weber PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... Cold air in place this morning will leave lows in the lower to mid 30s across the northwest Panhandles. Shortwave will move across the northern NM state line today, returning warm air to the area this afternoon. South winds should pick up around late morning, to early afternoon. This will allow temperatures to climb back into the 60s to possibly lower 70s. But another cold front is expected behind the shortwave. Front is expected to move through late tonight into early Thursday. Low's Thursday morning will be chilly, but don't expect that it will result in a freeze or a frost for any of the Panhandles. While temperatures might be near freezing low clouds are expected to move in, making it difficult for frost to form. No precipitation expected over the next 24 hours. Weber LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday... Similar setups are in store for Thursday and Friday. Quasi zonal jet streak will translate northeastward from the Four Corners into the Ohio River valley. Combined with surface high pressure across the Midwest, this should keep low level flow southeasterly until Friday afternoon, when a subtle cool front looks to dip southward across the Panhandles. This upslope flow will lead to at least partly cloudy skies and continued cool temperatures. As the jet noses in on Thursday, could get a few showers as well and then again Friday as the right entrance region passes overhead. Progged MUCAPE values are less than 100 J/kg and thermodynamic profiles are similarly uninspiring with regards to potential instability. Have thus kept thunder out of the forecast. Given light southeasterly breeze and continued cloud cover, have held up lows slightly on Thursday night. Did go a bit cooler on Friday night given the previously mentioned cool front. Attention then turns to the remnants of Sergio. While the remnants will head northeastward quickly, tropical influenced rains could still lead to spots dealing with flooding once again given the wet antecedent conditions. Guidance has taken a jog to the southeast with the axis of highest precipitation, so have adjusted highest PoPs accordingly. Next cold shot arrives behind Sergio early Sunday. Lingering showers and perhaps a few flurries will occur in the wake of this frontal passage. Some model soundings now also indicate some freezing drizzle potential but will wait to see this in future runs before adding to the forecast. The Sunday night/Monday morning period will likely feature at least frost across much of the Panhandles with a freeze possible across the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle. Ferguson && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 03/24