994 FXUS64 KAMA 100846 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 346 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... Cold air in place this morning will leave lows in the lower to mid 30s across the northwest Panhandles. Shortwave will move across the northern NM state line today, returning warm air to the area this afternoon. South winds should pick up around late morning, to early afternoon. This will allow temperatures to climb back into the 60s to possibly lower 70s. But another cold front is expected behind the shortwave. Front is expected to move through late tonight into early Thursday. Low's Thursday morning will be chilly, but don't expect that it will result in a freeze or a frost for any of the Panhandles. While temperatures might be near freezing low clouds are expected to move in, making it difficult for frost to form. No precipitation expected over the next 24 hours. Weber && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday... Similar setups are in store for Thursday and Friday. Quasi zonal jet streak will translate northeastward from the Four Corners into the Ohio River valley. Combined with surface high pressure across the Midwest, this should keep low level flow southeasterly until Friday afternoon, when a subtle cool front looks to dip southward across the Panhandles. This upslope flow will lead to at least partly cloudy skies and continued cool temperatures. As the jet noses in on Thursday, could get a few showers as well and then again Friday as the right entrance region passes overhead. Progged MUCAPE values are less than 100 J/kg and thermodynamic profiles are similarly uninspiring with regards to potential instability. Have thus kept thunder out of the forecast. Given light southeasterly breeze and continued cloud cover, have held up lows slightly on Thursday night. Did go a bit cooler on Friday night given the previously mentioned cool front. Attention then turns to the remnants of Sergio. While the remnants will head northeastward quickly, tropical influenced rains could still lead to spots dealing with flooding once again given the wet antecedent conditions. Guidance has taken a jog to the southeast with the axis of highest precipitation, so have adjusted highest PoPs accordingly. Next cold shot arrives behind Sergio early Sunday. Lingering showers and perhaps a few flurries will occur in the wake of this frontal passage. Some model soundings now also indicate some freezing drizzle potential but will wait to see this in future runs before adding to the forecast. The Sunday night/Monday morning period will likely feature at least frost across much of the Panhandles with a freeze possible across the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle. Ferguson && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1245 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ AVIATION...06Z TAFS... MVFR conditions continue at KAMA and KGUY as low clouds are attempting to erode out of the Panhandles. Conditions should become VFR by 12z and prevail thereafter. No precipitation expected over the next 24 hours at all terminals. Winds 5 to 10kts will start out of the north through about 15 to 18z then shifting south thereafter. Winds will then transition more easterly after 00z. Weber && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...Ochiltree... Oldham...Sherman. OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Beaver...Texas. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Cimarron. && $$ 89/77/89