970 FXUS64 KAMA 100545 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1245 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS... MVFR conditions continue at KAMA and KGUY as low clouds are attempting to erode out of the Panhandles. Conditions should become VFR by 12z and prevail thereafter. No precipitation expected over the next 24 hours at all terminals. Winds 5 to 10kts will start out of the north through about 15 to 18z then shifting south thereafter. Winds will then transition more easterly after 00z. Weber && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ SHORT TERM...(through 7am Wednesday) Divergence associated with right entrance region of upper-level jet streak currently supporting showers and a few thunderstorms across the southern half of the Texas Panhandle. With mid-level vorticity maximum poised to move across this same area, will continue with scattered to numerous showers over this area this morning, with isolated thunderstorms across southernmost sections. Expect to see less coverage during the afternoon as 700 mb theta-e advection diminishes and low-level moisture is eradicated. Upslope flow and isentropic upglide will continue however, with clouds slowly clearing from the north this afternoon. This will make for a much cooler day with highs remaining close to or below 60 degrees Fahrenheit across southern Texas Panhandle and in the 60s elsewhere. No additional rain expected this evening and overnight as shortwave trof passes early this evening with further mid-level drying expected. Cockrell LONG TERM...(7am Wednesday through Monday night) Items of interest include a short break in precipitation chances from a lengthy period of rainfall, as well as the return to precip chances, and then a cold front later in the week that will bring possible widespread frost/freezing temperatures later in the week. Beginning with Wednesday, we move towards a drier atmosphere with a zonal flow pattern aloft that should keep us dry Wednesday and Wednesday night. Pattern turns more southwesterly going into Thursday with some indication of a small embedded piece of energy that may scrap north of us but provide enough energy for precipitation chances. Perhaps some spotty chances to the west Thursday during the day increasing overnight across the forecast area as an upper level jet (left exit region) noses into southeastern parts of New Mexico creating divergence aloft. At the surface there appears to be a tight pressure gradient on the western periphery of a surface high on our western border to New Mexico where showers may form. MLCAPE is very limited to none across the forecast area. Forecast soundings are indicative of at least some moisture return so do expect some rainfall Thursday night if not beforehand, but thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Showers would form across the west and push east through the overnight hours. Friday is a somewhat harder forecast for precipitation chances. Upper level jet pushes east and the right entrance region of the jet will be located above the Panhandles, but 500mb pattern shows split flow aloft with no energy to work with. Forecast soundings also indicate a somewhat dry atmospheric column. Upper level dynamics indicate that the better chances for rainfall would be east of our area. For collaboration purposes carried some precipitation chances Friday but not all that confident with these chances. Remnants of Hurricane Sergio will begin its trek over the CONUS the end of the work week and by Saturday we should see those affects impacting the Panhandles. GFS brings the upper level disturbance east over the Rockies and just south of the forecast area, while the European is farther south of the forecast area. Overall better chances for rainfall are going to be south of us. GFS ensemble mean for precip probabilities show a good signal for rainfall across southern portions of the forecast area. Even though Saturday is Day5 felt strong enough to put 60%-80% PoPs across basically the southern half of the forecast area, and 20%-50% north of that. Signal is pretty strong for potentially heavy rainfall as well, but this may end up being south of our forecast area. Have plenty of time to tweak coverage on heavy rainfall potential as some areas may be more prone to flooding due to saturated soils from previous rainfall over the last several days. Of concern is also the potential for snow with temperatures dipping down near freezing Saturday night. Held of for now with this mention but this may become a threat if temperatures continue to show near freezing in the days to come. Cold front comes through Saturday and the potential for frost and freezing temperatures return to the area Saturday night, Sunday Night, and Monday night. For now the biggest threat appears to be Sunday night as widespread freezing temperatures are forecast, or in other words, temperatures around the mid 20's to the low 30s which would impact sensitive vegetation. Guerrero && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 65 45 61 49 69 / 0 0 10 30 20 Beaver OK 58 41 54 46 64 / 0 0 5 40 40 Boise City OK 58 38 54 46 64 / 0 10 10 40 20 Borger TX 63 45 60 50 71 / 0 0 10 30 20 Boys Ranch TX 66 45 60 51 71 / 0 0 20 30 20 Canyon TX 68 45 64 50 70 / 0 0 10 30 20 Clarendon TX 65 47 63 50 68 / 0 0 10 30 20 Dalhart TX 63 40 57 48 68 / 0 5 20 40 20 Guymon OK 58 40 54 47 66 / 0 5 10 40 20 Hereford TX 68 45 63 50 70 / 0 0 20 30 20 Lipscomb TX 60 42 57 47 66 / 0 0 5 40 30 Pampa TX 62 44 59 48 67 / 0 0 10 30 20 Shamrock TX 65 46 63 49 66 / 0 0 5 30 20 Wellington TX 66 48 63 50 67 / 0 0 5 40 20 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...Ochiltree... Oldham...Sherman. OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Beaver...Texas. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Cimarron. && $$ 89/24