854 FXUS61 KALY 091728 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 128 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Sunshine will mix with some clouds across eastern New York and western New England with well above normal temperatures for early October. It will also be humid. Mild and muggy conditions will continue for tonight into tomorrow. A frontal boundary, aided by tropical moisture, will allow for some locally heavy downpours on Thursday before cooler and more seasonable temperatures return for Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1253 PM EDT...The sunshine has broken through the clouds across portions the Hudson River Valley, Capital Region, Lake George Saratoga Region, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, northern Catskills, and portions of southern VT. Temps have soared quickly in these locations, and we have raised max temps around 5 degrees in most locations. The strong southwest flow in the boundary layer has helped erode the clouds quickly. The 12Z KALY sounding had a couple of inversions, one near-surface (roughly 500 FT AGL), and a stronger one around H970 (with additional ones noted aloft). Down sloping off the Catskills/Helderbergs/Adirondacks broke through the inversion. Max temps will be in the upper 70s to around 80F in portions of the valley areas, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns. Albany should be around 80F, and our record for today is 83F set in 1949. We could be close to that mark. Some stratus may linger a bit over the western New England higher terrain, eastern Catskills, and the mid Hudson Valley. The clouds will thin over the southern Adirondacks, but pockets of elevated instability with Showalter values of 0 to -2C will allow for some isolated showers or possibly a thunderstorm to pop-up especially from Old Forge northward. The 3km HRRR tries to develop a few rogue showers/isolated thunderstorms near the Adirondacks. It will feel quite muggy for October with dewpoints in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... With the upper level ridge remaining close by offshore, mild and muggy weather will continue for tonight into tomorrow. With the humid airmass in place, will allow for some patchy fog tonight, and a few spots of locally dense fog are certainly possible considering the light flow and high dewpoints. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Once fog burns off on Wednesday, another warm and mainly rain- free day is expected, with valley temps once again in the mid to upper 70s and a muggy southerly flow in place. A backdoor boundary will be located close to St. Lawrence Valley, but this front looks to stay north of the region, keeping our entire area in the warm sector. With the front close to the Adirondacks, can't rule out an afternoon shower in spots up there, but everywhere else should stay dry thanks to the high heights and warm temps aloft. By Wednesday evening, TC Michael will be lifting into the Southeast and PWAT values will be surging northward up the eastern seaboard. A strong frontal boundary will be moving eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for Wednesday night. With the moist flow in place, chances for showers will be increasing on Wed night, although best chance for precip probably won't be until Thursday until the large-scale forcing gets a little closer. We will increase POPs steadily through the night, with northwest areas into the likely range by late in the overnight. Lows will continue to be muggy in the 60s. As the frontal boundary starts to get closer, bands of showers are expected on Thursday, especially between the mid-morning through the mid-afternoon. The strongest upper level dynamics look to be just northwest of the area, as surface low lifts from the upper Great Lakes and into Canada. Meanwhile, a strong 120+ kt jet streak will be located over Ontario and Quebec, with our area briefly entering the favorable right entrance region. GFS suggest enough instability may be in place by afternoon to allow for a slight chc of thunder. Even outside of thunder, showers will be capable of very heavy rainfall, as PWAT values reach 2 to 4 STD above normal thanks to the anomalously strong southerly flow. Even though the core of TC Michael will be well south/east of the region over the Southeastern US, plenty of tropical moisture will be in place over the entire eastern US to allow for rainfall rates to reach up to an inch per hour at times. Check out our HYDRO discussion for thoughts on how this rainfall may impact rivers and streams of the area. Our latest QPF has amounts ranging from 0.70 inches over northern areas to 1.40 inches over the far south, although exact amounts will depend on if any convection occurs and where the heaviest showers track. The front looks to be sweeping across the area on Thursday night, ending the threat for heavy rain showers from west to east. It may take until late in the night for the front to finally cross eastern areas, so will taper POPs down through the night. Lows should fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area, with the coolest temps over the Adirondacks. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A large scale pattern shift is expected in the long term period as we will initially begin a cooler anomalous trough to be followed a more pronounced trough heading toward early next week. Per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast, 'Michael' will track off the mid-Atlantic coastline Friday as a strong cold front pushes across the northeast. Should be a rather brisk day unfolding as the combination of departing tropical entity and strong surface high to keep the pressure gradient a bit tight. Furthermore, mixing layer heights should be rather high within the cold advection regime as H850 temperatures drop back toward or slightly below 0C. There will be some lake response but inversion heights should limit inland extent a bit as we will keep our western county warning area dry at this time. Temperatures mainly in the 50s with some 40s across the Dacks. A chilly night expected Friday night but just how cold is low confidence. While the surface high will extend its influence across the northeast, upstream short wave will be fast approaching. Cloud coverage associated with this system may limit just how chilly we get where some frost and/or freeze headlines may be needed where the growing season continues. For now we will utilize the ensemble blended approach with mainly 30s for the higher terrain and 40-45F for the Capital Region southward through the Hudson River Valley into southern portions of Litchfield County. This short wave is forecast to move through the region Saturday morning accompanied by a few showers (some snow showers for the higher terrain). This will allow to further enhance the cold advection across the entire region as global models suggest a more robust lake response. We will continue with chance-scattered PoPs for portions of the western Dacks, western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley through most of the day. Temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs generally ranging between 45-55F. Saturday night into Sunday, an even higher probability for more widespread frost/freeze conditions as 1020+mb surface high slides west to east along the I80 corridor. Under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, temperatures will generally be in the 30s. Then clouds will be on the increase through the daylight hours Sunday as strengthening storm over the center of the nation takes shape. Based on the global model consensus, seems this surface low will track across and north through the Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes region early next week. We will be downstream of this system with warm and moist advection with clouds and the increase threat of showers beginning later Sunday, into Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will moderate as well with H850 temperatures climbing at or above 10C with 60-65F for valley locations from the Capital Region and points southward with mostly 50s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain anchored off the east coast through Wednesday, pumping warm and humid air into the region. As of 130 PM EDT, mainly VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites, with the exception of occasional MVFR Cigs lingering at KPSF. Expect conditions to trend mainly VFR by 20Z/Tue, which should last through at least 03Z/Wed. After 03Z/Wed, areas of low clouds are expected to redevelop. Initially, Cigs should drop to MVFR, before trending to IFR/LIFR between roughly 05Z-08Z/Wed. Vsbys are expected to vary between VFR and MVFR. IFR/LIFR conditions (mainly for Cigs) should gradually trend to MVFR between 14Z-16Z/Wed. Conditions could become VFR prior to 18Z/Wed, especially at KALB. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low clouds, fog, mist and drizzle will finally break for some sunshine by this afternoon, but RH values will only fall to 65 to 75 percent this afternoon. Southerly winds will be 5 to 10 mph. Some patchy fog will occur again tonight and may be locally dense in spots. Once fog burns off on Wednesday, sunshine is expected, with RH values dropping to 60 to 75 percent during the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will continue to be around 5 to 10 mph once again on Wednesday. A widespread soaking rainfall is expected for Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Outside of a few patches of light drizzle or mist, mainly dry conditions are expected for today into tomorrow. River and streams levels are expected to hold steady through at least tomorrow evening. Late Wednesday night into Thursday, a frontal boundary will be approaching from the west. Tropical moisture will be surging northward ahead of this boundary, allowing for PWAT values to reach close to two inches across the entire area. Bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms, some locally heavy, are possible for Wed night into Thursday. With high rainfall rates expected (possibly up to an inch an hour), this rain could cause flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas. River and streams levels may see some notable rises, although how much they rise will depend on the exact amounts of rainfall and where they occur, which is still uncertain at this time. The rain showers should be done by Friday, allowing for water levels to recede slowly, as a cooler air mass will return to close the week and enter the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL/Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis