795 FXUS61 KAKQ 110905 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 505 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the west today, as tropical cyclone Michael moves northeast across the southeast states and through the Carolinas. The storm will then track off the Mid Atlantic coast and out to sea Friday morning. Please refer to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center regarding Michael. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 445 AM EDT Thursday... Early this morning, tropical cyclone Michael was located near the GA/SC border. Latest radar showed isolated to sctd shower bands well in advance of the storm lifting nwrd into portions of the CWA. Otherwise, it was humid under a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky and temps were ranging thru the 70s. Expect mainly sctd showers thru the morning hrs well in advance of the storm. Then, widespread rain, heavy at times, will overspread the area fm WSW to ENE fm this aftn thru this evening, as the storm lifts NE thru NC and into SE VA. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA fm this morning/aftn into early Fri morning, with QPF amts of 3-6 inches of rain possible acrs portions of the region. The main threat area for the heaviest rainfall will generally stretch either side of a AVC-PTB-FYJ-SBY line. The CWA will not just have a heavy rain threat this aftn into this evening, but there will also be a threat for tornadoes acrs the SE VA and NE NC counties, based on the combination of moderate instability and the track/strength of the storm creating favorable wind shear profiles. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible acrs the remainder of the region. Highs today will range fm the upper 70s to mid 80s. Rain will taper off and end fm WSW to ENE late this evening into early Fri morning. CAA sets in behind the system allowing temps to drop into the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. Expect a period of gusty pressure gradient NNW (non-tropical) winds late tonight with inland gusts 30-40+ mph and 40-60 mph along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 445 AM EDT Thursday... The storm will quickly exit NE off the Mid Atlc coast and out to sea Fri morning into Fri aftn. Given the amount of dry air punching into the region behind the system, expect Fri to quickly become sunny or mostly sunny with breezy to windy conditions early. Dew points dropping into the 40s as well. Highs on Fri will range fm the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Fri night with lows ranging fm the mid to upper 40s nw, to the mid 50s sern coastal areas. S/W trof passes by north of the local area Sat morning. Will keep the forecast dry for now, with more cloudiness across the north. A stray afternoon shower will be possible north of the local area. Highs mainly 65-70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... The extended period will start with tranquil weather as sfc high pressure will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night. The area of high pressure will move offshore by the end of the day on Sunday. Sunday will be mainly dry with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. The weather will become more active early next week, as a trough of low pressure (along w/ a sfc cold front) are forecast to approach the region. As a result, shower/tstm chances increase from NW to SE late Monday through Tuesday as the cold front crosses the region. There are still some timing differences between the latest 10/12z GFS/ECMWF/GEM regarding the timing of the trough/FROPA. The GFS remains the faster model, as it moves all of the rain south/east of the area by late Tue AM. The ECMWF/GEM move the front through the area by Tue PM. However, they are forecasting some post-frontal rain to develop across the southern half of the CWA late Tue through Tue night (the GFS keeps the area dry behind the front). Leaned slightly toward the GFS with the forecast, but went with an overall blend of the models for the timing of the precipitation Mon night-Wed AM. For now, have PoPs of 30-50% across the entire area (progressing from NW to SE) Mon PM-Tue AM tapering to slight chc PoPs over the southeast by the end of the day on Tue. Mainly dry for Wed with a slight chance of showers over the southeastern CWA. Highs will mainly range from the mid 60s NW to the mid 70s over SE VA/NE NC on Sun, warming into the low 70s to around 80 on Mon. Cooler on Tue/Wed with highs ranging from the low-mid 60s NW to the mid 70s SE. Morning lows on Sun range from the 40s inland to near 60 over the southeast. Expect lows to range from near 50 to the low-mid 60s on Mon/Tue, cooling to the mid 40s NW/upper 50s SE on Wed/Thu. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Early this morning, tropical cyclone Michael was located near the GA/SC border. Isolated to sctd shower bands well in advance of the storm were lifting nwrd into portions of the CWA. Conditions at the TAF sites ranged fm MVFR to VFR, but some obs over the piedmont were showing IFR Cigs fm stratus. Expect mainly sctd showers with MVFR or VFR conditons at the TAF sites thru the morning hrs well in advance of tropical cyclone Michael. Widespread RA/+RA will then overspread the area from WSW to ENE fm this aftn thru this evening, as the storm lifts NE thru NC into SE VA. The area of steady RA/+RA will not arrive in SBY until ~8 PM this evening. The steady RA/+RA will end from W to E acrs the region between 04-09z Fri. Visibilities will fluctuate between MVFR and (briefly) LIFR levels in the rain, with IFR or low-end MVFR CIGS through the duration of the steady RA/+RA. S/SE winds will likely gust to 15-30 kts this aftn at the coastal TAF sites. Winds turn to the NNW late tonight into early Fri morning, and are expected to briefly gust to 30-50 kt at the coastal sites, with 20-30 kt gusts expected at RIC. Winds slowly subside during the day on Fri, as Michael rapidly moves offshore away from the Mid-Atlc coast. OUTLOOK... Dry weather/VFR conditions are expected later Fri morning through Sun. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Thursday... SSE winds ~15 knots this morning per latest obs/buoy reports. Seas will average 3-4 feet and waves around 1 to 2 feet. Now T.S. Michael continues to slowly lift NNE over the deep south this morning. Models are still in good agreement w/lifting Michael along the Carolina coast today, eventually getting absorbed by an approaching upper level trough, and sending the remnant low across the NE NC/SE VA coast late tonight into early Friday, with the storm then accelerating offshore into the day on Friday. The flow will remain S-SE today, and will increase slightly due to the tightening pressure gradient. Winds quickly increase late today into Friday morning due to a combination of Michael and the approaching strong cold front from the northwest. Models remain in relatively good agreement on the mesoscale details. We have once again accelerated timing slightly per the offical NHC official track. On this track, winds are expected to pick up out of the S/SE tonight across the southern waters with gusts as high as 50 knots possible. Winds then turn to the NNW Friday morning, behind the frontal passage and as the remnant low moves offshore. Winds may gust to 40 knots over a majority of the waters Friday morning with even higher gusts of 50 to 60 knots across the southern coastal waters/Bay. The current forecast has the strongest winds roughly between 8pm EDT/00z and 5am EDT/09Z Friday morning. The strongest winds diminish through the morning Friday, but breezy NW winds will linger Friday afternoon as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Thus, expect a round of SCA will be needed for a period after current slate of marine headlines can be lowered. With respect to headlines, no changes have been made over the waters. Storm Warnings remain in effect for the ocean S of Parramore Is. and the entire Ches Bay, along with the Lower James River. The remaining zones have Gale Warnings. For land areas, a High Wind Warning is now in effect for portions of Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. With respect to land hazards, Wind Advisories extend further inland, surrounding the High Wind Warning. Additional Wind Advisories have been extended from along and SSE of a Farmville to Richmond and Tappahannock line. && .HYDROLOGY... Current river forecasts are based on expected QPF's. So despite most gages progged to go above flood stage, we still have some time to evaluate the forecasts once the heavier rain approaches. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 PM EDT Wednesday... Have issued a broad-brushed coastal flood advisory from thu aftn through Fri morning for NC locations adjacent to the Currituck and Albemarle sound (including nearby rivers). This area has little tidal influence, but expect some water to be driven into the sounds on strong E/SE winds later Thu. Elsewhere, tidal departures currently avg around +1.0 ft in the mid/upper Bay and +0.5 to +0.75 ft in the lower Bay and less than +0.5 ft along the Ocean. Only minor/nuisance flooding is expected through the next high tide cycle overnight/early Thu morning so have extended the coastal flood statement through that timeframe over the bayside of the MD eastern shore and across the northern Neck. Due to the fast motion of Michael, coastal flooding is generally expected to peak only in the minor flood category and the latest 12Z/10 guidance continues to depict the peak surge occurring late Thu evening into early Fri morning. This does not really occur during high tide and even in locations across the lower Bay and Ocean where it is closer to high tide, this will be the lower high tide of the diurnal cycle. Did not issue any coastal flood watches, but expect that the next shift(s) will need some coastal flood advisories. One additional concern is for the eastern side of the Bay where there could be a quick increase in the departures early Fri as the winds shift to the NW and intensify to storm force, forcing water into these locations. Some residual elevated departures may persist along the southern VA/NC ocean locations Fri. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning for MDZ021>025. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for MDZ021>025. NC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Friday morning for NCZ012-013-030. Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning for NCZ014>017-031-032-102. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for NCZ012>014-030>032. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for NCZ015>017-102. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ015>017-031-032-102. VA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Friday morning for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>081-087-088-092- 509>517. Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning for VAZ075>078-082>086-089-090-093-095>100- 518>525. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for VAZ060-065>068-075>085-087>090-092-093-096-512>524. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for VAZ086-095-097>100-525. MARINE...Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for ANZ630>634-638-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...MPR/TMG LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJB/MAM HYDROLOGY...ESS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ESS