741 FXUS61 KAKQ 101442 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1042 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the from the west tonight and Thursday, as tropical cyclone Michael moves northeast across the southeastern states and into the Carolinas. The storm will then track off the Mid Atlantic coast and out to sea Friday. Please refer to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center regarding Michael. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1030 AM EDT Wednesday... Adjusted grids per current radar / sfc ob trends late this morning. Added slght chc pops most locations over the next few hrs. May have to increase pops this afternoon due to increasing moisture from both the GOM and Atlantic. PoPs for showers will increase fm SW or W twd the E tonight. Highs today will range fm 80 to 85. Lows tonight 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday... Deep layered SSW flow expected Thu thru Thu night will bring PWATs above 2". Models continue to show a reasonably high potential for a period of excessive rain fm late Thu into early Fri morning in axis of strongest mid level frontogenesis (aligned/centered on a line from WAL/MFV to PTB/AKQ to AVC/IXA, with a cold front pressing SE as remnant tropical cyclone tracks through ern/NE NC. Right now, going with a max QPF axis of 3-6" (through 12Z/12), and have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the srn 2/3rds of the area fm Thu morning into Fri morning. Most models and TPC have cyclone off the VA Capes Fri morning. A period of strong NNW winds (gusts to 40-60 mph) expected over ern areas by late Thu night/early Fri in the wake of the cyclone and with cooler/drier air surging SE. Promoting quick clearing W-E during Fri, with winds subsiding in the aftn. Highs on Thu in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Thu night will range fm the mid to upper 50s NW, to the mid to upper 60s ESE. Highs on Fri in the mid to upper 60s, except lower to mid 70s in the ESE. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from TPC and NWS Wakefield on track/impacts from Hurricane Michael. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday... Cooler/drier air will continue to filter in from the N/NW Fri night- Saturday as sfc high pressure settles into the region. The area of high pressure will pass just north of the region late Sat night/Sun AM before moving offshore by the end of the day on Sunday. This will set the stage for a pleasant weekend w/ temperatures near or slightly below average. A fairly potent trough of low pressure (along w/ a sfc cold front) approach the region from the west early next week. As a result, shower/tstm chances increase from NW to SE late Sunday night through Tuesday as the cold front crosses the region. There are some differences between the latest 09/12z GFS/ECMWF/GEM regarding the timing of the trough/FROPA. The GFS is faster, as it moves all of the rain south/east of the area by Tue AM. The ECMWF/GEM are both slower, keeping rain chances over the southeastern half of the CWA through Wed AM. For now, have PoPs of 25-40% (progressing from NW to SE) across the area from late Sun night through the day on Tue. After the FROPA on Tuesday/Tuesday night, cooler/drier weather will likely return to the area. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 60s north to around 70F over SE VA/NE NC. Expect a slow warming trend on Sun/Mon, as highs are expected to increase to around 70F north to the upper 70s south/east by Mon. Morning lows on Sat/Sun are expected to range from the mid 40s north/west to near 60F in coastal SE VA/NE NC. Slightly warmer on Mon/Tue with forecast lows in the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday... IFR cigs/vsbys will be possible thru early this morning at RIC/SBY/PHF. Then, expect VFR conditions at all the TAF sites later this morning into early this evening, with a chance of a shower or tstm at RIC. Winds will become SSE at around 10 kt or less at the TAF sites. A cold front moving in from the west, coupled with remnant tropical cyclone Michael tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico and off the NE NC coast, will then affect the area Thu aftn into Fri morning, bringing flight restrictions due to lower CIGS/reduced VSBYs in +RA. A period of strong/gusty NNW winds is expected Fri morning, esply along the coast. VFR conditions expected Fri aftn through Sun. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday... Latest obs and buoy reports reflect E-SE flow of 10 to 15 knots this morning. High pressure continues to linger offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast this morning, as an inverted trough is remains in place over the deep south out ahead of Hurricane Michael. Hurricane Michael appraoch the Florida Panhandle this morning and is expected to make landfall across the same area later today. Winds will remain SE around 10 to 15 knots, becoming SSE this afternoon and this evening. Seas will average around 3 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet through Wednesday. Michael makes landfall and is forecast to get absorbed by the approaching upper trough, sending the remnant low up the southeast coast Thursday through early Friday. The flow will remain S-SE late today into early Thursday, and will increase slightly due to the tightening pressure gradient. Winds quickly increase late Thursday into Friday morning due to a combination of Michael and the approaching strong cold front from the northwest. Models remain in relatively good agreement on the mesoscale details, though some timing differences remain. have edged toward the quicker solution which is also preferred by the NHC official track. On this track, winds are expected to pick up out of the S/SE Thursday night across the southern waters with gusts as high as 50 knots possible. Winds then turn to the NNW Friday morning, behind the frontal passage and as the remnant low moves offshore. Winds may gust to 40 knots over a majority of the waters Friday morning with even higher gusts of 50 to 60 knots across the southern coastal waters/southern Bay. The current forecast has the strongest winds roughly between 06 and 12Z Friday morning. The strongest winds diminish through Friday morning, but breezy NW winds will linger through the day Friday as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. With respect to headlines, the result of all of the above means Storm watches remain in effect for the ocean S of Parramore Is. and the Bay S of Windmill Point, along with the Lower James River. The remaining zones have gale watches. For land areas, a high wind watch is in effect for southeast coastal areas. Expect a larger area of wind advisories over coastal areas as we get closer in time. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 725 AM EDT Wednesday... Tidal departures currently avg +0.5 to +1.0 ft with peak water levels generally below minor flood thresholds. Expect elevated tidal anomalies and persistent E-SE to yield nuisance to low end minor tidal flooding over the same middle peninsula/northern neck coastal sites, including Bishops Head on the MD eastern shore side today and tonight. Due to the fast motion of Micheal widespread coastal flooding is not expected. The latest guidance depicts the peak surge occurring at low tide early Friday morning. If the peak surge occurs closer to high tide, some minor tidal flooding is possible, primarily over the lower Bay and into the James/York River. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NCZ015>017-102. VA...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for VAZ065>067-079>082-084-086>090-092-093-095>100- 523>525. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for VAZ095-097-098-100-525. MARINE...Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ANZ631>634-638-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ANZ630-635>637-650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR/TMG NEAR TERM...MPR/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ