109 FXUS61 KAKQ 092351 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 751 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered off the Mid Atlantic coastinto Wednesday, keeping conditions warm with a low chance of precipitation. A cold front will approach the from the west Wednesday night and Thursday, as Hurricane Michael or its remnant low moves northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center regarding Michael. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Summer-like again this afternoon. One difference from previous few days is that there are ISOLD SHRAs that have popped over mostly srn VA and NE NC. SCT-BKN CU and ISOLD SHRAs expected to dissipate early this evening after heating ends. Another night of ST/FG...esp inland and on interior lower MD ern shore anticipated (after 04-08Z/10). Lows in the u60s-l70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Moisture will be increasing from 2 sources Wed/Wed night...from the off the SE CONUS coast...and from the ern Gulf of Mexico (w/ remnants of Hurricane Michael). SHRAs/tstms becoming more likely Wed afternoon/night w/ PoPs rising to 40-60%. Deep layered SSW flow expected Wed night thru Thu night will bring PWATs above 2". Models continue to show a reasonably high potential for a period of excessive rain Thu night in axis of strongest mid level frontogenesis (aligned/centered on a line from WAL/MFV to PTB/AKQ to AVC/IXA...w/ cold front pressing SE as remnant tropical cycle tracks through ern/NE NC. Right now...going w/ a max QPF axis of 3-6" (through 12Z/12). Most models and TPC have cyclone off the VA Capes Fri morning. A period of strong NNW winds (gusts to 40-60 mph) expected over ern areas by late Thu night/early Fri in the wake of the cyclone and w/ cooler/drier air surging SE. Promoting quick clearing W-E during Fri...w/ winds subsiding in the afternoon. Highs Wed/Thu in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Wed night 70-75F. Lows Thu night in the m50s NW to the m60s SE. Highs Fri in the m-u60s...except l70s in far SE VA-coastal NE NC. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from TPC and NWS Wakefield on track/impacts from Hurricane Michael. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday... Cooler/drier air will continue to filter in from the N/NW Fri night- Saturday as sfc high pressure settles into the region. The area of high pressure will pass just north of the region late Sat night/Sun AM before moving offshore by the end of the day on Sunday. This will set the stage for a pleasant weekend w/ temperatures near or slightly below average. A fairly potent trough of low pressure (along w/ a sfc cold front) approach the region from the west early next week. As a result, shower/tstm chances increase from NW to SE late Sunday night through Tuesday as the cold front crosses the region. There are some differences between the latest 09/12z GFS/ECMWF/GEM regarding the timing of the trough/FROPA. The GFS is faster, as it moves all of the rain south/east of the area by Tue AM. The ECMWF/GEM are both slower, keeping rain chances over the southeastern half of the CWA through Wed AM. For now, have PoPs of 25-40% (progressing from NW to SE) across the area from late Sun night through the day on Tue. After the FROPA on Tuesday/Tuesday night, cooler/drier weather will likely return to the area. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 60s north to around 70F over SE VA/NE NC. Expect a slow warming trend on Sun/Mon, as highs are expected to increase to around 70F north to the upper 70s south/east by Mon. Morning lows on Sat/Sun are expected to range from the mid 40s north/west to near 60F in coastal SE VA/NE NC. Slightly warmer on Mon/Tue with forecast lows in the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across the terminals this evening with E/SE winds aob 12 kt. Latest obs indicate that FEW-SCT CU remains across the area this evening, with a couple areas of showers away from the terminals. Expect the terminals to remain mostly dry tonight. However, there is the possibility of IFR/LIFR fog/stratus (best chance at RIC/PHF) late tonight into Wednesday morning, but am not expecting it to be as widespread/dense as was observed the previous two nights. Went ahead and maintained prevailing IFR VSBYS at RIC/PHF, with IFR stratus/MVFR BR at SBY. ORF/ECG should remain free of any visibility restrictions through the night. Winds turn to the S/SE during the day on Wednesday and will remain around 10 kt at the terminals. There is a 20-40% chc of SHRAs/tstms Wed aftn/evening. For now, kept any mention of rain out of the TAFs. However, any SHRA/tstm will have the potential to cause brief IFR visibility restrictions. A cold front moving in from the W...coupled w/ remnant tropical cyclone Michael tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico and off the NE NC coast...will then affect the area (late) Thu into (early) Fri morning...bringing flight restrictions due to lower CIGS/reduced VSBYs in +RA. A period of strong/gusty NNW winds is expected Fri morning...esp along the coast. VFR conditions expected Fri afternoon through Sun. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday... Latest obs and buoy reports show general onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots. High pressure is located off the New England coast and an inverted trough is located over the deep south out ahead of Hurricane Michael. Hurricane Michael continues to track off to the north this afternoon and is expected to approach the Florida Panhandle by tomorrow morning. In the short term, relatively benign conditions expected through the middle of the week. Winds will remain SE around 10 to 15 knots, becoming SSE during the day on Wednesday. Seas will average around 3 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet through Wednesday. Attention turns to Hurricane Michael which is expected to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle by tomorrow morning. Michael makes landfall and is forecast to get absorbed by the trough, sending the remnant low up the southeast coast Thursday through early Friday. The flow will remain S-SE late Wednesday into Thursday, and will increase slightly due to the tightening pressure gradient. Winds quickly increase late Thursday into Friday morning due to a combination of Michael and an approaching strong cold front from the northwest. Models have started to converge on a forecast track, but there does still remain some uncertainty regarding timing. Winds are expected to pick up out of the S/SE Thursday night across the southern waters with gusts as high as 50 knots possible. Winds then turn to the NNW Friday morning, behind the frontal passage and as the remnant low moves offshore. Winds may gust to 40 knots over a majority of the waters Friday morning with even higher gusts of 50 to 60 knots across the southern coastal waters/southern Bay. The current forecast has the strongest winds roughly between 06 and 12Z Friday morning. The strongest winds diminish through Friday morning, but breezy NW winds will linger through the day Friday as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Storm Watches and Gale Watches will likely be issued for all of the waters with the next forecast update. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday... Tidal departures currently avg +0.5 to +1.0 ft with peak water levels generally below minor flood thresholds. It appears as if the high tide cycle later this morning/afternoon will be a few tenths higher than those of earlier this evening and some nuisance coastal flooding is possible. Will issue a coastal flood statement for the middle peninsula and northern neck for this upcoming tide cycle. Expect elevated tidal anomalies and persistent E-SE to yield nuisance to low end minor tidal flooding over the same middle peninsula/northern neck coastal sites, including Bishops Head on the MD eastern shore side through midweek. Will need to continue to monitor trends for further advisories or statements as needed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ANZ630-635>637-650-652. Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ANZ631>634-638-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ALB/ERI MARINE...AJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...