409 FXUS61 KAKQ 091949 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 349 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered off the Mid Atlantic coastinto Wednesday, keeping conditions warm with a low chance of precipitation. A cold front will approach the from the west Wednesday night and Thursday, as Hurricane Michael or its remnant low moves northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center regarding Michael. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Summer-like again this afternoon. One difference from previous few days is that there are ISOLD SHRAs that have popped over mostly srn VA and NE NC. SCT-BKN CU and ISOLD SHRAs expected to dissipate early this evening after heating ends. Another night of ST/FG...esp inland and on interior lower MD ern shore anticipated (after 04-08Z/10). Lows in the u60s-l70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Moisture will be increasing from 2 sources Wed/Wed night...from the off the SE CONUS coast...and from the ern Gulf of Mexico (w/ remnants of Hurricane Michael). SHRAs/tstms becoming more likely Wed afternoon/night w/ PoPs rising to 40-60%. Deep layered SSW flow expected Wed night thru Thu night will bring PWATs above 2". Models continue to show a reasonably high potential for a period of excessive rain Thu night in axis of strongest mid level frontogenesis (aligned/centered on a line from WAL/MFV to PTB/AKQ to AVC/IXA...w/ cold front pressing SE as remnant tropical cycle tracks through ern/NE NC. Right now...going w/ a max QPF axis of 3-6" (through 12Z/12). Most models and TPC have cyclone off the VA Capes Fri morning. A period of strong NNW winds (gusts to 40-60 mph) expected over ern areas by late Thu night/early Fri in the wake of the cyclone and w/ cooler/drier air surging SE. Promoting quick clearing W-E during Fri...w/ winds subsiding in the afternoon. Highs Wed/Thu in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Wed night 70-75F. Lows Thu night in the m50s NW to the m60s SE. Highs Fri in the m-u60s...except l70s in far SE VA-coastal NE NC. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from TPC and NWS Wakefield on track/impacts from Hurricane Michael. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday... Cooler/drier air will continue to filter in from the N/NW Fri night- Saturday as sfc high pressure settles into the region. The area of high pressure will pass just north of the region late Sat night/Sun AM before moving offshore by the end of the day on Sunday. This will set the stage for a pleasant weekend w/ temperatures near or slightly below average. A fairly potent trough of low pressure (along w/ a sfc cold front) approach the region from the west early next week. As a result, shower/tstm chances increase from NW to SE late Sunday night through Tuesday as the cold front crosses the region. There are some differences between the latest 09/12z GFS/ECMWF/GEM regarding the timing of the trough/FROPA. The GFS is faster, as it moves all of the rain south/east of the area by Tue AM. The ECMWF/GEM are both slower, keeping rain chances over the southeastern half of the CWA through Wed AM. For now, have PoPs of 25-40% (progressing from NW to SE) across the area from late Sun night through the day on Tue. After the FROPA on Tuesday/Tuesday night, cooler/drier weather will likely return to the area. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 60s north to around 70F over SE VA/NE NC. Expect a slow warming trend on Sun/Mon, as highs are expected to increase to around 70F north to the upper 70s south/east by Mon. Morning lows on Sat/Sun are expected to range from the mid 40s north/west to near 60F in coastal SE VA/NE NC. Slightly warmer on Mon/Tue with forecast lows in the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions w/ SCT-BKN CU once again this afternoon/evening. ISOLD/small SHRAs dotting the local area attm. CU and SHRAs likely to dissipate early this evening (by sunset). Another round of FG/ST by late tonight into early Wed morning... w/ a 20-40% chc of SHRAs/tstms Wed aftn/evening. A cold front moving in from the W...coupled w/ remnant tropical cyclone Michael tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico and off the NE NC coast...will then affect the area (late) Thu into (early) Fri morning...bringing flight restrictions due to lower CIGS/reduced VSBYs in +RA. A period of strong/gusty NNW winds is expected Fri morning...esp along the coast. VFR conditions expected Fri afternoon through Sun. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday... Latest obs and buoy reports reflect onshore flow (E-SE) ~10 kt. Surface analysis reveals high pressure nudging south from the eastern New England coast offshore of the Mid-Atlantic/DelMarVa coast. To the south, an inverted trough was noted over the deep south out ahead of Hurricane Michael...which continues to nudge NNW of the Yucatan Straight toward the Florida Panhandle this morning. No headlines are in effect for the marine area today and through Wednesday, with relatively benign conditions expected through midweek. E/SE winds persist today, which will hold winds ~10-15 kt due to the pressure gradient between the sfc high off the NE/mid- Atlantic coast and sfc troughing along the SE coast. Seas will avg 3 ft and waves 1-2 ft through today and into Wednesday. Hurricane Michael is progged to slowly push NNE toward the FL panhandle through Wed night, and moves inland and gets absorbed and shunted E-NE across the SE coast by an approaching trough/front from the NW Thu/Thu night. Flow remains S-SE Late Wed and Thu, and will increase slightly due to tightening pressure gradient but should remain sub-SCA. This will, however, serve to slowly increase waves/seas Wed night through Thu night. Increasing winds are expected, primarily late Thu into Fri, due to a combination of Michael and the approaching strong cold front from the northwest. While there does remain some uncertainty with respect to the eventual track and intensity of Michael, models are in good agreement that winds quickly turn around to the NNW over northern waters on Friday. Conditions appear likely to be at their worst over the marine area late Thu night and Friday morning, with gusts to 30-40 kt possible for what should be a 6-8 hour period immediately following the frontal passage, as the remnant low slides offshore. As always, please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from NHC for details. The storm will accelerate offshore away from the region quickly on Friday. However, gusty NW winds will linger for a period behind the storm, with a strong secondary surge likely as cool high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley Friday night, which could last in to the early portion of the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday... Tidal departures currently avg +0.5 to +1.0 ft with peak water levels generally below minor flood thresholds. It appears as if the high tide cycle later this morning/afternoon will be a few tenths higher than those of earlier this evening and some nuisance coastal flooding is possible. Will issue a coastal flood statement for the middle peninsula and northern neck for this upcoming tide cycle. Expect elevated tidal anomalies and persistent E-SE to yield nuisance to low end minor tidal flooding over the same middle peninsula/northern neck coastal sites, including Bishops Head on the MD eastern shore side through midweek. Will need to continue to monitor trends for further advisories or statements as needed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ALB/TMG MARINE...AJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...