416 FXUS61 KAKQ 091911 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 311 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered off the Mid Atlantic coastinto Wednesday, keeping conditions warm with a low chance of precipitation. A cold front will approach the from the west Wednesday night and Thursday, as Hurricane Michael or its remnant low moves northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center regarding Michael. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Summer-like again this afternoon. One difference from previous few days is that there are ISOLD SHRAs that have popped over mostly srn VA and NE NC. SCT-BKN CU and ISOLD SHRAs expected to dissipate early this evening after heating ends. Another night of ST/FG...esp inland and on interior lower MD ern shore anticipated (after 04-08Z/10). Lows in the u60s-l70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday... Moisture will begin to increase more substantially beginning later tonight thru Wed, as area of SHRAs/tstms spreads NW into the Carolinas/GA, and eventually farther N into the Mid-Atlc states (Wed aftn). Deep layered SSW flow expected Wed night thru Thu night will bring PWATs above 2". Will have high chance to likely PoPs late Wed night, increasing to likely or Cat PoPs Thu thru Thu night. Models continue to hint at a possible period of excessive rain late Thu into Thu night, as remnant tropical cycle approaches fm the SW. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs Wed/Thu in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Wed night 70-75. Some significant differences remain in track and intensity guidance regarding the eventual track of Hurricane Michael that may have implications for impacts to the local area. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the TPC and NWS Wakefield. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... A period of wx more typical of Fall expected Fri-Mon. The main concern will be how quickly moisture exits the coast Fri. A cold front will be pushing remnant tropical cyclone off the coast Fri...and will generally follow a blended forecast (w/ TPC leading the way) - 12Z/08 ECMWF now catching up w/ other models/TPC w/ faster idea. With that in mind...will be clearing out/lowering PoPs W-E rather quickly Fri as drying NNW winds (gusty...esp E) take over (as the front/any tropical remnant cyclone exits). For the weekend...pleasant wx expected. The next cold front forecast to approach late Sun/Sun night. Some increase in moisture expected by Sun afternoon...but holding off on increased PoPs until Sun night- Mon.ld Refer to TPC for information and forecast track of Hurricane Michael. Lows Thu night in the m-u50s W to the m-u60s at the coast. Highs Fri in the u60s N and W to the m70s far SE. Lows Fri night from 45-50F W to around 60F along coastal SE VA-NE NC. Highs Sat mainly 65-70F. Lows Sat night 45-50F inland to around 60F along coastal SE VA-NE NC. Highs Sun from the u60s NW to the l-m70s SE. Highs Mon around 70F NW to around 80F SE. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions w/ SCT-BKN CU once again this afternoon/evening. ISOLD/small SHRAs dotting the local area attm. CU and SHRAs likely to dissipate early this evening (by sunset). Another round of FG/ST by late tonight into early Wed morning... w/ a 20-40% chc of SHRAs/tstms Wed aftn/evening. A cold front moving in from the W...coupled w/ remnant tropical cyclone Michael tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico and off the NE NC coast...will then affect the area (late) Thu into (early) Fri morning...bringing flight restrictions due to lower CIGS/reduced VSBYs in +RA. A period of strong/gusty NNW winds is expected Fri morning...esp along the coast. VFR conditions expected Fri afternoon through Sun. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday... Latest obs and buoy reports reflect onshore flow (E-SE) ~10 kt. Surface analysis reveals high pressure nudging south from the eastern New England coast offshore of the Mid-Atlantic/DelMarVa coast. To the south, an inverted trough was noted over the deep south out ahead of Hurricane Michael...which continues to nudge NNW of the Yucatan Straight toward the Florida Panhandle this morning. No headlines are in effect for the marine area today and through Wednesday, with relatively benign conditions expected through midweek. E/SE winds persist today, which will hold winds ~10-15 kt due to the pressure gradient between the sfc high off the NE/mid- Atlantic coast and sfc troughing along the SE coast. Seas will avg 3 ft and waves 1-2 ft through today and into Wednesday. Hurricane Michael is progged to slowly push NNE toward the FL panhandle through Wed night, and moves inland and gets absorbed and shunted E-NE across the SE coast by an approaching trough/front from the NW Thu/Thu night. Flow remains S-SE Late Wed and Thu, and will increase slightly due to tightening pressure gradient but should remain sub-SCA. This will, however, serve to slowly increase waves/seas Wed night through Thu night. Increasing winds are expected, primarily late Thu into Fri, due to a combination of Michael and the approaching strong cold front from the northwest. While there does remain some uncertainty with respect to the eventual track and intensity of Michael, models are in good agreement that winds quickly turn around to the NNW over northern waters on Friday. Conditions appear likely to be at their worst over the marine area late Thu night and Friday morning, with gusts to 30-40 kt possible for what should be a 6-8 hour period immediately following the frontal passage, as the remnant low slides offshore. As always, please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from NHC for details. The storm will accelerate offshore away from the region quickly on Friday. However, gusty NW winds will linger for a period behind the storm, with a strong secondary surge likely as cool high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley Friday night, which could last in to the early portion of the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday... Tidal departures currently avg +0.5 to +1.0 ft with peak water levels generally below minor flood thresholds. It appears as if the high tide cycle later this morning/afternoon will be a few tenths higher than those of earlier this evening and some nuisance coastal flooding is possible. Will issue a coastal flood statement for the middle peninsula and northern neck for this upcoming tide cycle. Expect elevated tidal anomalies and persistent E-SE to yield nuisance to low end minor tidal flooding over the same middle peninsula/northern neck coastal sites, including Bishops Head on the MD eastern shore side through midweek. Will need to continue to monitor trends for further advisories or statements as needed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB/TMG MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...