279 FXAK67 PAJK 111355 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 555 AM AKDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...Frontal boundary continues to slowly push S through the S panhandle while the parent low continues to spin over the Bering. Rain and winds will continue to diminish N-S. Clearing over Yakutat by last evening has allowed fog to develop over the N gulf coast early this AM. Model solutions remain in good agreement on synoptic pattern through the period. Anticipate a wave traversing the front maintaining precip chcs through the afternoon, especially for the S panhandle. A pool of cold air aloft associated with this wave will destabilize the mid levels and modeled MUCAPEs range 300-400 J/kg over the N gulf late this afternoon/early evening, so maintained mention of SChC TS. A shortwave ridge will begin to build in the wake of this wave resulting in a clearing/drying trend this evening into Fri. This will result in favorable conditions for fog development overnight into Fri across the region. Fog was already mentioned in the forecast but increased areal and temporal coverage to persist through the morning. Expect at least some sunshine Fri, but the break will be brief as the ridge exits to the E with another gale force low moving N across the W gulf pushing another front into the N gulf coast/E gulf Fri night into Sat. Inherited forecast represented this well with biggest change to increase fog coverage overnight/Fri morning. Forecast confidence remains above average. .LONG TERM...As of 10pm Wednesday. The extended forecast looks active with normal temperatures and wet weather. Saturday begins with our next atmospheric river type front already over the central/eastern gulf. Models are in agreement that a low will track north along the front to be over the north-central gulf mid-day Saturday. Models have also deepened the pressure with the low, helping to give us more confidence in a period of gale force winds over the gulf. Moderate to heavy rain over Yakutat will spread SE over the northern half of the panhandle through the day. Small craft advisory winds out of the S-SE will shift over the inner channels with the front and may have some stronger gusts. There will likely be a wind shift to the west once the front passes. However, waves tracking along the front will cause it to oscillate N-S through Sunday, making it somewhat difficult to pin down where the wind shifts and heaviest core of rain will be at any given time. One thing that models are starting to agree more on is that one of the waves will shift the front back northward Sunday night through Monday, putting Yakutat back under the fire hose. This would cause the far southern panhandle to only see a brief/small amount of rain with this front, which is unfortunate as they have the most need. Eventually the front should shift back SE before dissipating, but the likelihood/timing of that is more uncertain. MOS guidance wanted to warm both max and min temperatures by several degrees. While 850mb temps are warm due to the atmospheric rivers transporting the "tropical" airmass over us, do not think that getting out of the low-mid 50s is likely on a rainy/cloudy fall day. Today is a good example, fairly similar airmass, but highs hardly in the 40s. As for the min temperatures, warming them to have a smaller diurnal range on rainy days seems logical, but with any breaks in the clouds as the front shifts will likely cause it to be colder. Have stayed with the status quo for the most part and opted to not warm temps as much as guidance would suggest. However, at the beginning of next week when the front shifts back north, there is a time when the southern panhandle could be partly cloudy in the afternoon. This would allow for warmer temps than we have in there. As mentioned above, timing of when the front wavers is the biggest question, so not ready to commit to partly cloudy and 60 degrees attm. && .AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043. Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ051>053. && $$ BC/Ferrin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau