291 FXAK67 PAJK 102257 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 257 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM... / Through Friday / A moderate is tracking northwards over southwest Alaska on Wednesday afternoon. A frontal band with this low is wrapped about that low and then curls into the northern gulf out of the Copper River Basin and then south-southwest over the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific toward the Hawaiian Islands. Communities across Southeast Alaska are enjoying the sound or anticipating the sound of the pitter pat of some much needed rains for the area. The rains have only spread into the northern half of the panhandle and will slowly move east and south across the southern panhandle. The front will slow down and stall briefly along Dixon Entrance and a secondary wave on the front moves through that region Thursday. The front will then slide quickly east and south from the panhandle. A ridge of high pressure builds over the gulf late Thursday into Friday. This will end the showers and help move them out of the panhandle. It will also create some breaks late Thursday night, and therefore will allow some patchy fog to develop over the central and southern inner channels. A new developing system starts to spin up on Friday in the western gulf and northern Pacific with a second developing low on or near the front lifting northeast to the far southern gulf by Friday afternoon. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/ As of 10pm Tuesday...Friday looks to be a break in the weather for majority of the panhandle as an upper level and surface ridge will have built up post front. Expect NWLY winds to become light and variable then turn out of the S-SE as we start to feel the affects of the next front. We are officially in our normal fall active pattern. Friday evening a front will move into the central gulf with rain reaching the Yakutat area overnight. Have increased wind speeds with the front as models are in fairly good agreement. Friday night winds over the gulf increase to around 30kt, then have a small area of gale force winds along the NE gulf coast during Saturday. Expect most of Saturday across the region to be wet, but with rainfall rates picking up over the north/central panhandle during the night. This front is currently progged to move quickly SE across the panhandle with a period of moderate to heavy rain, gusty S-SE winds followed by a quick wind shift to the west. Timing of these things will likely be adjusted some over the next few days, but as of now most models have the rain south of Ketchikan by Sunday evening. This puts our next break in the weather Sunday evening through mid-day Monday. Short break for some, but likely longer for the southern panhandle as the next front looks to be directed at the northern gulf coast near Yakutat. There is less certainty when this front will shift eastward over the rest of the panhandle. Expect temperatures to be fairly steady with little diurnal range on our rainy/front days. Nights between fronts will likely see minimums being several degrees cooler, but that will be highly dependent on clouds/winds and will be fine tuned over time. Generally models were in good agreement, so used a blend of what was available. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions early this evening with local Marginal conditions from the visibility or the lowering cloud heights expect to seem more lower ceiling through the evening. By Thursday morning Expect fairly widespread marginal conditions due to the cloud heights, with a spotty Instrument Ratings due to the clouds. && .HYRDROLOGY...Rains of 3/4 inch to 1.5 inches expected tonight and Thursday, will raise water levels. Should not threaten any flooding issues. however the rains are welcome to the lakes around the panhandle as communitities are looking forward to them beginning to refill. A new potential atmospheric river seems to be developing for early next week over the central panhandle. && .AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043-053. && $$ Bezenek/Ferrin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau