316 FXAK67 PAJK 101432 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 632 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and surface analysis indicate a dissipating front along the outer gale force low moving NE across the W gulf attm. This will push another front into the N gulf coast today then across the panhandle tonight. This front will access deep layer moisture resulting in moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall as it moves across the panhandle through Thu AM. Winds have begun increasing over the gulf with gusts to gale force already reported at buoy 46082. Expect increasing winds spreading Ewd into the inner channels through the day with Lynn Canal, Icy and Clarence Straits and Cross Sound rising to SCA with the strongest winds, to 30 kt, over Cross Sound. Models continue to indicate a wave developing on this front which will maintain precip overnight into Thur. Precip will hold off over the S panhandle through late tonight, but widespread precip totals of 3/4-1 1/2 inches expected across the region, including much needed rainfall to the southern panhandle. Precip will be all rain except for the Klondike where a mix with snow is expected near White Pass again with accumulations up to an inch possible. Otherwise, models indicate some instability Thu afternoon as a shortwave moves NE across the gulf. Despite Oct being our climatological peak for convection, elected not to include mention attm as instability parameters are marginal at best, but will continue to monitor potential. Expect some clearing Thu night into Fri as shortwave ridge begins building into the region. Added some patchy fog over the inner channels, but could be a more impactful fog event impacting travel through much of Fri morning. Inherited forecast represented this reasoning well with biggest changes the consideration of TS and to add fog Fri morning. Forecast confidence is above average. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/ As of 10pm Tuesday...Friday looks to be a break in the weather for majority of the panhandle as an upper level and surface ridge will have built up post front. Expect NWLY winds to become light and variable then turn out of the S-SE as we start to feel the affects of the next front. We are officially in our normal fall active pattern. Friday evening a front will move into the central gulf with rain reaching the Yakutat area overnight. Have increased wind speeds with the front as models are in fairly good agreement. Friday night winds over the gulf increase to around 30kt, then have a small area of gale force winds along the NE gulf coast during Saturday. Expect most of Saturday across the region to be wet, but with rainfall rates picking up over the north/central panhandle during the night. This front is currently progged to move quickly SE across the panhandle with a period of moderate to heavy rain, gusty S-SE winds followed by a quick wind shift to the west. Timing of these things will likely be adjusted some over the next few days, but as of now most models have the rain south of Ketchikan by Sunday evening. This puts our next break in the weather Sunday evening through mid-day Monday. Short break for some, but likely longer for the southern panhandle as the next front looks to be directed at the northern gulf coast near Yakutat. There is less certainty when this front will shift eastward over the rest of the panhandle. Expect temperatures to be fairly steady with little diurnal range on our rainy/front days. Nights between fronts will likely see minimums being several degrees cooler, but that will be highly dependent on clouds/winds and will be fine tuned over time. Generally models were in good agreement, so used a blend of what was available. && .AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-036-041>043-051-053. && $$ BC/Ferrin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau