800 FXAK69 PAFG 102039 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1239 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Windy near the Alaska Range this evening with winds diminishing overnight. Winds will pick up again Thursday night in the Alaska Range and diminish Saturday morning. As low out west moves north it will allow more southwest flow into the interior so the showers that are occurring will move northeast across the interior avoiding the downslope and shadow of the Alaska Range between wind events. Rain and snow north of Fairbanks with snow north of the Yukon River in the Interior. Arctic Coast will remain cloudy with low stratus and patchy dense fog. Showers will continue on the West Coast spreading north into the Chukchi Sea region this afternoon. Models...Good agreement aloft continues through the weekend, and surface solutions are in reasonable agreement through Friday. There is some disagreement from day 5 on over the Arctic, but there is plenty of time for that to get ironed out. Troughing aloft slides over the Eastern Bering Sea and the ridge moves east a bit allowing for a more active pattern over the Central and Eastern Interior into Sunday before the ridge builds back to the west a bit. Will be using a fairly equal blend for the winds, leaning on the NAM/ARW for precipitation, and will just be making minor edits to the temperature grids for the short term. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Ridging has shifted east and lies from Juneau to Dawson to Kaktovik to a 548 dam center 300 nm north of Nuiqsut with ridging extending west over 75N. Broad area of lower heights over the Bering Sea remains in place with a 522 dam center, remnants of Kong-Rey, 100 nm north of St Paul, and a 525 dam low that moved out of the North Pacific last night over Aniak in the Lower Yukon Delta. A strong shortwave extends east over the Alaska Range and will continue to spin north over the Brooks Range by Thursday morning, and over the Arctic Coast by Thursday night. Ridging will push northwest over Bristol Bay early Thursday morning, and over the Middle Yukon Valley Thursday evening, and over the Central and Eastern Interior by Friday morning. Trough will persist over the Arctic Coast and Chukchi Sea, with ridging over 75N extending from the Siberian Arctic to the southern tip of Banks Island. The ridging over the Interior will be pushed east Saturday as another wave move up the western flank of it and northeast over mainland Alaska. At 850 hpa...Temperatures warming to 0C to +5C through Thursday morning, then cooling to 0C to -5C Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning before rebounding Friday afternoon through the weekend to 0C to +5 over the Central and Eastern Interior, and even extend north over the Eastern Arctic Coast for the weekend. Surface...High pressure has moved north and east with broad area of low pressure extending northeast over most of the state this afternoon. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range is producing wind gusts to around 60 mph near passes as a 986 mb low is moving northwest over Anvik this afternoon, and will move near St lawrence Island tonight as it absorbs the remnants of Kong-Rey. The main front is moving north across the Middle Tanana Valley and will be over the Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea, and south slopes of the Brooks Range by Thursday morning. High pressure will build in over the Eastern Interior Thursday, with leeside troughing redeveloping along with tight pressure gradient and strong gusty winds near Alaska Range Passes as another front swings around the low as it lingers in the Northeast Bering Sea at 988 mb. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog will continue to hang around A front dragging across the area will keep it clouds with some flurries for most areas. Some clearing inland and in the Western and Central Brooks Range. No significant snowfall is expected. Winds will swing around from southwest to northwest to northeast as the front moves across the area with wind speeds 10 to 20 mph by Wednesday morning, increasing to 20 to 40 mph by Wednesday evening for most coastal locations and in the plains. In the Brooks Range winds will be northeast at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will be warming a couple degrees through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior...Not much changing. Cloudy with occasional showers across the area. A short break in the showers Thursday morning, but they wrap back around the low and move up the coast later in the day and will continue to spin up the coast through the weekend as the low lingers in the northeast Bering Sea. Breezy along the coast and on St Lawrence Island with northeast to east winds 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph this evening diminishing to 10 to 20 mph overnight. Most inland areas will have southeast to south winds 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures slightly warmer over the next couple days. Central and Eastern Interior...Showers across the area tonight with rain showers in the Middle Tanana Valley, a mix of rain and snow showers north of Fairbanks to the Yukon River, and snow north of the Yukon River. No significant accumulation of snow is expected. Showers will taper off by Thursday evening. Winds will diminish overnight, but Chinook winds developing Thursday night with strong gusty winds near Alaska Range Passes to around 70 mph, will evaluate need for any Wind Warnings with the next model cycle. Expect some strong gusty winds around the Robertson River and Tanancross Friday morning as well. Winds will diminish late Friday through Saturday morning. Temperatures will warm slightly through the remainder of the week. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A weather front will bring some clouds and showers to the area early Sunday, then clearing as ridging aloft builds north over the area. Temperatures across the forecast area at or above normal for mid October, and no significant snow expected in the Interior. West Coast will be Showery with at or above normal temperatures. The Arctic Coast will be cloudy with flurries and fog. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Hydrology...No issues, rivers continue to fall. The rivers north of the Tanana Valley are starting to freeze up, while the lakes across the area are starting to freeze over. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB OCT 18