003 FXAK69 PAFG 092119 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 119 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Strong winds developing around Delta Junction and near Alaska Range Passes tonight with Tanana Valley Jet setting up, and Chinook flow developing across the Alaska Range. Remnants of Kong-Rey will continue to spin rain showers up the West Coast and clouds into the Interior. Another low will move rapidly into the Southwest Mainland tonight sending rain showers into the Interior, but with strong Chinook flow the Middle and Upper Tanana Valley will be in the dry slot and will only see a brief rain shower or sprinkle tomorrow. Showers will spread north of Fairbanks, and may be mixed with snow when they begin, but are expected to change to all rain. The Arctic Coast will continue to be relatively quiet with low ceilings, a few flurries, and some strong northeast winds to 35 mph for most areas. Models...Solutions continue the trend of good agreement aloft through mid week, and surface solutions are in reasonable agreement through 96 hours. Active pattern in the the Bering Sea will work its way east as high pressure over the Interior is pushed east and upper level trough, with the remnants of Kong-Rey, moves over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and Eastern Bering Sea. Solutions not hinting at winter yet as they build another strong ridge over the Central and Eastern Interior which will bring more warm air north. Going with the same methodology as yesterday, so Will be using an equal blend of the solutions for the short term leaning a bit toward the NAM for precipitation coverage. Will not be using any model temperature guidance as it is performing poorly due to the lack of snow on the ground. Aloft...at 500 hpa...The 537 dam low over the Yukon Territory is moving east. Ridging that has built north over the Chukchi Sea the last couple days lies over 140W in the Northeast Pacific to Yakutat to Allakaket to Wrangel Island, and will be pushed east and north to lie from Juneau to Dawson to Kaktovik to a 548 dam center 300 nm north of Nuiqsut with ridging extending west over 75N. Broad area of lower heights over the Bering Sea remains in place with a 524 dam center, remnants of Kong-Rey, 200 nm north of Adak. A shortwave extends northeast this afternoon over the Lower Yukon Delta to Lake Minchumina. The shortwave will continue to spin northwest and wash out over the Chukchi Sea. A strong shortwave extends south of the low and will spin northeast with a closed low developing along the shortwave over Bristol Bay as the primary low moves over the Pribilof Islands. The low over Bristol Bay will continue north over the southwest mainland by Wednesday morning with troughing extending east over Valdez to Yakutat. The low will continue to spin north, then west merging with the primary low just north of Nunivak Island Thursday morning at 524 dam. The shortwave will continue north to lie from the low over Galena to Fort Yukon to Dawson, then stretching out to lie over the Eastern Chukchi Sea, and Arctic Coast by Friday morning. Ridging will persist over the Arctic lying over 75N. At 850 hpa...Temperatures warming to 0C to +5C through Thursday morning, then cooling to 0C to -5C Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Temperatures rebound Friday afternoon through the weekend to 0C to +5 over the Central and Eastern Interior, and even extend north over the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast for the weekend. Surface...High pressure over the Eastern Interior and Central and Eastern Arctic will be pushed north and east as broad area over low pressure over the Bering Sea pushes east, and a couple lows in the North Pacific move north into the southeast mainland. A weak weather front over the Central and Eastern Arctic will move east this evening with a ridge of high pressure lying east to west over the Arctic just offshore. As the lower pressure pushes east and north, the ridging will be pushed further offshore in the Arctic and a broad trough will lie over mainland Alaska between the ranges by Thursday morning. Troughing will remain over the West Coast and Arctic Coast as 986 mb low stalls just north of Nunivak Island and high pressure builds in over the Central and Eastern Interior. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range will help tighten pressure gradient across the range with Chinook developing. Strong high pressure in the Yukon Territory will combine with that troughing to initiate the Tanana Valley Jet tonight and Wednesday around Delta Junction as well. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A front dragging across the area will keep it clouds with some flurries for most areas. Some clearing inland and in the Western and Central Brooks Range. No significant snowfall is expected. Winds will swing around from southwest to northwest to northeast as the front moves across the area with wind speeds 10 to 20 mph by Wednesday morning, increasing to 20 to 40 mph by Wednesday evening for most coastal locations and in the plains. In the Brooks Range winds will be northeast at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will be warming a couple degrees through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy, showers, breezy along the coast and on St Lawrence Island. Some increased winds at times in the Nulato Hills as well. Rainfall amounts over next couple days will be 0.25 to 0.75 inch with the heaviest rainfall expected in the Lower Yukon south of Galena. Winds generally northeast to southeast at 10 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in Norton Sound, on the outer capes, on St Lawrence Island, and locally in the Nulato Hills. Temperatures slightly warmer over the next couple days. Central and Eastern Interior...High clouds moving over the interior in advance of a couple weather systems that will be moving through pretty rapidly the next couple days. Some sprinkles in the Tanana Valley, with showers north of Fairbanks Wednesday. Showers will be mixing with snow overnight north of Fairbanks, but do not expect any accumulation. First system tonight will produce a pretty good Chinook across the Alaska Range with winds increasing to gusting near 60 mph near passes. Tanana Valley Jet also kicks in with strong high pressure over the Yukon Territory so winds around Delta Junction kick up to southeast at 25 to 35 mph gusting around 50 mph by Wednesday morning. Near the Passes winds south gusting near 60 mph can be expected. Winds diminish Wednesday night, but another Chinook is on tap for Friday. Temperatures will warm slightly through the remainder of the week. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Not seeing any significant change in the pattern we have seen for the past few weeks with trough over the Bering Sea and ridging over mainland Alaska. So expect cloudy with occasional rain showers on the West Coast, and mostly clear in the Interior. Temperatures on the West Coast will be around normal, while temperatures in the Interior will be above normal. Strong Chinook winds Friday and Monday with gust around 50 mph near Alaska Range Passes. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Hydrology...No current issues, rivers continue to fall with rivers north of the Tanana Valley starting to freeze up. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ223-AKZ226-AKZ227. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230. && $$ SDB OCT 18