176 FXUS63 KABR 111125 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Sfc high pressure will drag in drier air today. However, the 925mb moisture progs are still fairly high through the afternoon. Therefore, tried to reflect that in the sky grids, keeping stratus overcast conditions in place through 18-21z. The broad, persistent upper trough will remain over the northern Plains which will translate to continuation of much colder than normal temperatures. As low pressure moves off the Rockies and into the Plains late tonight/early Friday, it will replace some moisture availability across southern SD. Shortwave activity in the upper trough will provide the additional lift necessary to result in some light rain and snow late tonight across south central SD from Pierre south. Accumulations of less than an inch of snow are possible for areas along and south of I-90. With clear skies in the north tonight, temperatures will tank in radiational cooling. Expect lows in the 20s. Any areas with snow still on the ground could even see temps dip into the upper teens. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Shortwave trough will be exiting the area on Friday, which may bring some light precipitation to the southwest CWA, perhaps in the form of snow early in the morning. Warm air advection will be spreading across the area Friday night out ahead of an approaching cold front. Setup will be in place for downslope winds across the Coteau region and have conveyed this in the wind grids. With the strong warm air advection and increasing winds, look for temps to steady out then slowly rise through the nighttime hours. On Saturday, a potent cold front will move through the area with gusty northwest winds in its wake. 850 mb temps drop pretty steadily throughout the day, which should lead to slowly falling temperatures at least over the northern CWA during the afternoon hours. Increased winds above inherited SuperBlend for Saturday and Saturday night, going more towards a CONSMOS feel during this time period. With the cold air pouring in this weekend, we'll likely be back down into the 30s for highs on Sunday after a couple days of highs in the 40s. Winds go light by Sunday night as a surface ridge slides through the area. With the cold air mass in place and lighter winds, dropped lows Sunday night a few degrees lower than SuperBlend and more towards raw numerical guidance. Really bottomed out ABR as well, which could easily drop into the teens given the right radiational cooling conditions. In fact, MEX guidance has 15 degrees for a low in ABR Monday morning, and didn't see a need to stray from this for the time being. This would actually be a record low for Monday the 15th. There is rather decent agreement now in warming temperatures moving in by the middle of next week - days 6 and 7. Inherited SuperBlend highs for Wednesday and Thursday were several degrees cooler than the raw MEX/ECE numbers. Discovered that CONSMOS seemed to be a nice middle ground between the cool Superblend and rather mild MEX/ECE numbers, so went with this for highs on Wednesday. Raised highs on Thursday a couple degrees as well. If models continue to show 850 mb temps warming into the teens Celsius by the middle of next week, highs will likely need to be raised even more, as the current MEX/ECE numbers show highs well into the 60s for much of the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 MVFR stratus over the region this morning is expected to break up between 17z and 21z today. As another system approaches from the southwest, though, MVFR cigs and some precip may affect KPIR toward the end of the period. Models are also starting to hint at some stratus/fog redevelopment near KABR and KATY tonight so added an MVFR cig mention for now. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...Wise