696 FXUS63 KABR 110522 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1222 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The Winter Weather Advisory went away at 7PM CDT. As of this writing, widespread 2 to 5 inches of snowfall has been reported across much of the forecast area on and west of the Prairie Coteau of northeast South Dakota. Multiple 6+ inch reports have been gathered from Marshall county. Radar trends continue to suggest the best TROWAL-forcing is shifting north and east away from this forecast area, with radar returns diminishing across the far northeast corner of the CWA, all the while flurries have developed in the stratus layer (perhaps some seeder-feeder contribution causing the flurries) across portions of north central over into northeast South Dakota. Very little in the way of changes are needed at this time in the tonight period forecast. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Snow continues, mainly from far eastern McPherson/Edmunds Counties, through Brown, Marshall, Day, and Roberts. Light rain and drizzle remains the dominant weather type. Reports of 1 to around 6 inches have come in, with the highest amount just north of our borderer in Ellendale ND. Will continue the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory until 00Z. The 700-500mb low over our eastern counties shifts into MN shortly after 00Z. Despite the continued cloud cover, temperatures at the surface will be able to cool into the 20s. This will result in freezing on untreated area roadways. Otherwise, the northerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will also diminish tonight. Expect the surface high currently across central Canada to sink overhead Thursday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Surface high pressure will be over the central part of the country Thursday evening. A weak upper level shortwave will slide across the region during the overnight hours, and may result in precipitation over the southwestern CWA on the northeast side of a surface low. The high remains the dominant feature over the area through Friday evening, before getting pushed southeast by an approaching clipper system. As far as precipitation goes with this system, it looks to remain mostly north of the CWA, with the far northeastern part of the CWA possibly seeing the precipitation clip that area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure returns behind the exiting system for Sunday and Sunday night. Another clipper system approaches from the northwest Monday, and may bring chances of precipitation to the northern CWA Monday afternoon and Monday night as the main area of precipitation once again looks to affect North Dakota. As this system exits to the east, high pressure settles in Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, with the exception of Thursday and Sunday, when highs will only be in the 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s Thursday night, Saturday night and Sunday night, and in the 30s the rest of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Stratus clouds around will likely hold Flight Category at MVFR (maybe IFR at KATY) for the rest of tonight. Models/guidance hinting at eventual dissipation of the low clouds on Thursday from west to east. Later Thursday night, the next area of low pressure forecast to move through the region could be bringing some precipitation chances to the KPIR terminal. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Wise