260 FXUS63 KABR 110231 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The Winter Weather Advisory went away at 7PM CDT. As of this writing, widespread 2 to 5 inches of snowfall has been reported across much of the forecast area on and west of the Prairie Coteau of northeast South Dakota. Multiple 6+ inch reports have been gathered from Marshall county. Radar trends continue to suggest the best TROWAL-forcing is shifting north and east away from this forecast area, with radar returns diminishing across the far northeast corner of the CWA, all the while flurries have developed in the stratus layer (perhaps some seeder-feeder contribution causing the flurries) across portions of north central over into northeast South Dakota. Very little in the way of changes are needed at this time in the tonight period forecast. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Snow continues, mainly from far eastern McPherson/Edmunds Counties, through Brown, Marshall, Day, and Roberts. Light rain and drizzle remains the dominant weather type. Reports of 1 to around 6 inches have come in, with the highest amount just north of our borderer in Ellendale ND. Will continue the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory until 00Z. The 700-500mb low over our eastern counties shifts into MN shortly after 00Z. Despite the continued cloud cover, temperatures at the surface will be able to cool into the 20s. This will result in freezing on untreated area roadways. Otherwise, the northerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will also diminish tonight. Expect the surface high currently across central Canada to sink overhead Thursday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Surface high pressure will be over the central part of the country Thursday evening. A weak upper level shortwave will slide across the region during the overnight hours, and may result in precipitation over the southwestern CWA on the northeast side of a surface low. The high remains the dominant feature over the area through Friday evening, before getting pushed southeast by an approaching clipper system. As far as precipitation goes with this system, it looks to remain mostly north of the CWA, with the far northeastern part of the CWA possibly seeing the precipitation clip that area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure returns behind the exiting system for Sunday and Sunday night. Another clipper system approaches from the northwest Monday, and may bring chances of precipitation to the northern CWA Monday afternoon and Monday night as the main area of precipitation once again looks to affect North Dakota. As this system exits to the east, high pressure settles in Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, with the exception of Thursday and Sunday, when highs will only be in the 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s Thursday night, Saturday night and Sunday night, and in the 30s the rest of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Conditions beginning to improve at KMBG and KPIR with the snow having ended there and low level cold air/dry air advection continuing. KMBG/KPIR should be solidly into VFR flying weather by Thursday morning. KABR/KATY remain under the influence of a few snow flurries for a couple more hours this evening. Sub-VFR cigs are expected to begin gradually dissipating/lifting over the next 12 to 24 hours as well with low level cold air/dry air advection happening there, too. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Dorn