268 
FXUS63 KABR 102020
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Snow continues, mainly from far eastern McPherson/Edmunds Counties, 
through Brown, Marshall, Day, and Roberts. Light rain and drizzle 
remains the dominant weather type. Reports of 1 to around 6 inches 
have come in, with the highest amount just north of our borderer in 
Ellendale ND. Will continue the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory 
until 00Z. The 700-500mb low over our eastern counties shifts 
into MN shortly after 00Z. Despite the continued cloud cover, 
temperatures at the surface will be able to cool into the 20s. 
This will result in freezing on untreated area roadways. 
Otherwise, the northerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will also 
diminish tonight. Expect the surface high currently across central
Canada to sink overhead Thursday afternoon. 


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Surface high pressure will be over the central part of the country 
Thursday evening. A weak upper level shortwave will slide across the 
region during the overnight hours, and may result in precipitation 
over the southwestern CWA on the northeast side of a surface low. 
The high remains the dominant feature over the area through Friday 
evening, before getting pushed southeast by an approaching clipper 
system. As far as precipitation goes with this system, it looks to 
remain mostly north of the CWA, with the far northeastern part of 
the CWA possibly seeing the precipitation clip that area late 
Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure returns behind the 
exiting system for Sunday and Sunday night. Another clipper system 
approaches from the northwest Monday, and may bring chances of 
precipitation to the northern CWA Monday afternoon and Monday night 
as the main area of precipitation once again looks to affect North 
Dakota. As this system exits to the east, high pressure settles in 
Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period. Highs will 
be mainly in the 40s, with the exception of Thursday and Sunday, 
when highs will only be in the 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 
20s Thursday night, Saturday night and Sunday night, and in the 30s 
the rest of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Pocket of VFR ceilings/vis is just northwest of MBG. Look for
slowly improving conditions across the TAF sites from west to east
through this evening. VFR conditions should be across all but ATY
by 06Z Thursday, with lower ceilings lingering at ATY through 
most of this TAF period. Another concern will be the breezy 
northerly winds, which will also be diminishing west to east 
through the evening and overnight hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for 
     SDZ006>008-011-018-021.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...KF