962 FXUS63 KABR 101542 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1042 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Will keep headlines as is today. Have had reports of 4in in Murdo, to 2-3.5in up through Potter, Walworth, and Edmunds County. Another pocket of snow over 2 inches has been over portions of Marshall, Day, and northeastern Brown County (estimated off SD DOT web cams). The latest radar imagery and CAM solutions do show the quick end to moderate snow near and west of the Missouri River. Have updated the forecast to account for this more eastern shift. Will also update to highlight more of a dry slot across our eastern counties this morning, as the focus for additional moderate snow has really been across far eastern McPherson/Edmunds/Faulk, northern Spink, Brown, and then Marshall and Day Counties. With temperatures falling into the 20s tonight, increased awareness of freezing ice and water on untreated roadways overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Precipitation continues to pivot around a 700mb low centered around the Huron area. A heavier band is moving through the James Valley early this morning and accumulated a quick half inch to an inch of snow. As soon as intensity slacked off, though, the snow began to melt on paved surfaces. This is a pattern that is expected to continue through the day, especially after sunrise, since temperatures are hovering above freezing. The wraparound deformation zone will continue to push east today with the upper low. Without development of intense bands with rates of an inch an hour, however, do not expect the advisory accumulations will come close to materializing on anything but grassy surfaces without the sfc temp being at or below 32F. The dry slot has moved into southeastern/eastern SD, so still think that will be a major factor in reducing accumulations across that region. Ample 925mb moisture will remain entrenched from the Missouri River to west central MN through early Thursday morning. This means the stratus is unlikely to exit with the storm system this evening. Kept overcast conditions in the forecast through early Thursday morning for most of the region. Temperatures, however, are forecast to fall into the 20s tonight even with the blanketing clouds as H85 temps fall to around -8C with the sfc high dropping down from Canada. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Surface high pressure will be over the region on Thursday with breezy northwest winds continuing for eastern portions of the CWA. With 850 mb temps remaining around -5C during the day, expect highs to be stuck in the 30s for most areas east of the Missouri. Pretty cold temps in store Thursday night as winds remain rather light, although we will see some degree of increasing clouds as shortwave trough moves through. Lows look to dip into the low to mid 20s for north central through northeast SD into west central MN. Next blast of cold air looks to move in on Saturday and will remain with us through Sunday night. GFS/EC in fairly good agreement in bringing the potent cold front through the area Saturday morning, with sharply falling 925/850 mb temps during the afternoon. Given this scenario, we would likely see falling temps throughout the day on Saturday. Winds look pretty stout on Saturday as well and used more of a CONSMOS feel. The cold air mass remains in place on Sunday with highs only in the 30s. With light winds Sunday night, looking likely to see widespread 20s for lows, and would not be surprised if the James valley snuck into the teens for lows. Of course, this would need light winds and mostly clear skies for this to happen so will continue to monitor and make adjustments as necessary. As for precipitation, just a few weak disturbances pass through the region, nothing that looks well organized with significant precipitation. Weak wave slides across southern SD Thursday night through Friday morning, with perhaps some mixed precipitation over the southwest CWA - amounts look to be on the light side. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1044 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Pocket of VFR ceilings/vis is just northwest of MBG. Look for slowly improving conditions across the TAF sites from west to east through this evening. VFR conditions should be across all but ATY by 06Z Thursday, with lower ceilings lingering at ATY through most of this TAF period. Another concern will be the breezy northerly winds, which will also be diminishing west to east through the evening and overnight hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ006>008-011-018-021. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...KF SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...KF