984 
FXUS63 KABR 101132 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
632 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Precipitation continues to pivot around a 700mb low centered around 
the Huron area. A heavier band is moving through the James Valley 
early this morning and accumulated a quick half inch to an inch of 
snow. As soon as intensity slacked off, though, the snow began to 
melt on paved surfaces. This is a pattern that is expected to 
continue through the day, especially after sunrise, since 
temperatures are hovering above freezing. 

The wraparound deformation zone will continue to push east today 
with the upper low. Without development of intense bands with rates 
of an inch an hour, however, do not expect the advisory 
accumulations will come close to materializing on anything but 
grassy surfaces without the sfc temp being at or below 32F. The dry 
slot has moved into southeastern/eastern SD, so still think that 
will be a major factor in reducing accumulations across that region. 

Ample 925mb moisture will remain entrenched from the Missouri River 
to west central MN through early Thursday morning. This means the 
stratus is unlikely to exit with the storm system this evening. Kept 
overcast conditions in the forecast through early Thursday morning 
for most of the region. Temperatures, however, are forecast to fall 
into the 20s tonight even with the blanketing clouds as H85 temps 
fall to around -8C with the sfc high dropping down from Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Surface high pressure will be over the region on Thursday with 
breezy northwest winds continuing for eastern portions of the CWA. 
With 850 mb temps remaining around -5C during the day, expect highs 
to be stuck in the 30s for most areas east of the Missouri. Pretty 
cold temps in store Thursday night as winds remain rather light, 
although we will see some degree of increasing clouds as shortwave 
trough moves through. Lows look to dip into the low to mid 20s for 
north central through northeast SD into west central MN. 

Next blast of cold air looks to move in on Saturday and will remain 
with us through Sunday night. GFS/EC in fairly good agreement in 
bringing the potent cold front through the area Saturday morning, 
with sharply falling 925/850 mb temps during the afternoon. Given 
this scenario, we would likely see falling temps throughout the day 
on Saturday. Winds look pretty stout on Saturday as well and used 
more of a CONSMOS feel. The cold air mass remains in place on Sunday 
with highs only in the 30s. With light winds Sunday night, looking 
likely to see widespread 20s for lows, and would not be surprised if 
the James valley snuck into the teens for lows. Of course, this 
would need light winds and mostly clear skies for this to happen so 
will continue to monitor and make adjustments as necessary. 

As for precipitation, just a few weak disturbances pass through the 
region, nothing that looks well organized with significant 
precipitation. Weak wave slides across southern SD Thursday night 
through Friday morning, with perhaps some mixed precipitation over 
the southwest CWA - amounts look to be on the light side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected today as snow falls
across the area. Gusty north winds of 25 to 35 kts are expected
through the day. Snow will exit from west to east this afternoon
and evening and winds will diminish overnight. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon 
     for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for 
     SDZ006>008-011-018-021.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Wise